台灣產業資本配置效率性之研究

Abstract

促使國家的經濟成長和社會進步的主要機制之一是合理地分配資源。而在眾多資源分配中，資本配置是重要關鍵點之一。九０年代可以說是台灣產業結構急遽調整的一段時期，有些產業出現衰退的警訊，但同時也有些產業呈現獲利率持續上升的情況。因此，基於資本配置的重要性與台灣近10年產業結構急遽轉變的情況下，本研究將針對九０年代台灣資本配置效率做一探討。 本研究之時間範圍為1991~2001年，研究樣本依據台灣證券交易所對各公司進行產業之分類。本研究分別以資本投入之動態過程與靜態結果來看台灣資本配置效率。分析1991~2001年間14產業的在前者部分主要是以產業經營績效觀點與Wurgler資本配置效率分析﹔後者則是以長期獲利性均衡方式驗證。結果發現： (1)在動態的觀察方式中，得到1991~2001年間的台灣具資本配置效率性的相同結論。且發現台灣在90年代後期資本有配置不佳的現象。 (2)靜態獲利能力均衡的部分，則得到台灣在90年代呈現配置效率不佳的情況，但90年代後期則有改善的現象。

For a nation to continuously creating wealth, the capital market of that nation must efficiently allocate the available fund among the various industrial sectors. It is widely believed that the efficient capital allocation plays a major role in driving a nation’s economic growth. Taiwan has undergone dramatic changes in her industrial structure in the past ten years. Some industries experienced serious setback while others grew and prospered. It is of interest and importance to investigate the allocating role of the capital market during this period of time. In this thesis, we investigated the allocation efficiency of Taiwan’s capital market. Financial data of all the listed companies in the past ten years were collected. Two sets of hypotheses concerning the efficiency of the capital market were developed and tested. The first hypothesis investigates the dynamic behavior of capital allocation. The second hypothesis examined the phenomena in equilibrium state. The results of our study are as follows: First, the dynamic study showed that the capital was reasonably allocated among the various sectors in Taiwan. However, the allocation efficiency has deteriorated in the late 1990’s. Second, the study on equilibrium state showed that there is evidence of inefficiency on capital allocation during the period of time.