創新擴散模型之研究--以數據機為例

Abstract

由於科技的快速進步，產品的生命週期逐漸縮短，因此正確地對產品的市場銷售進行預測，將有助企業管理決策的制定。另一方面，因為Internet的熱潮持續，促成類比式數據機成為個人電腦的必要配備。就如我們所知，擴散模型最主要的功能就在於探究產品的生命週期，並預測需求量。因此，本研究的主要目的即在於以Bass擴散模型為基礎，加入價格與相關品的銷售量作為影響產品銷售量及市場潛量的變數，提出一修訂模型，採用類比式數據機來驗證此模型在市場銷售方面具有更佳的預測能力。研究分析資料是1986年至1998年的類比式數據機之各季銷售量，資料來源為各期的中華民國台灣地區工業生產統計月報及進出口統計月報。 研究結果發現，在模型建構方面，本研究所建構之研究模型，較Bass模型和Robinson與Lakhani模型具有更佳的配適與預測能力。而在實証分析方面，則是類比式數據機的市場潛量與個人電腦銷售量間具有正向的相關性，類比式數據機的價格敏感度頗高，及消費者對於類比式數據機的創新接受度低。

The fast pace of technology improvement has led to shortened life cycles for products in many industries. Thus, a correct sales forecast can help the managers make an appropriate strategic decision to achieve the organization goals. On the other hand, because of the hot trend of Internet, modem becomes the essential requirement of personal computer (PC). As we know, the main function of diffusion models is to explore the product life cycle, and to forecast demand. Hence, the primary purpose of this study is to propose a modified Bass model, adding in prices and unit sales of relevant products, and use modem to prove its better ability in sales forecast. The quarterly unit sales data of modem, for the 52 periods from January 1986 to December 1998, are used. The results indicate that the proposed model has better ability in sales forecast than Bass model and Robinson and Lakhani model. Second, PC unit sales have a positive impact on market potential of modem. Third, modem unit sales are negatively influenced by prices, and are quite sensitive to prices. Finally, the degree of innovation acceptance for modem is low.