交通運輸部門之二氧化碳減量可行性策略分析研究

Abstract

國內交通運輸部門因能源使用產生之CO2排放量，僅次於工業部門位居第二，且比重日益增加，為有效達成減量目標，並兼顧運輸永續發展之條件下，實有必要檢討及調整運輸政策之重點與方向。 本研究收集國內外交通運輸之CO2排放減量策略及技術等相關文獻、國內運輸情形、能源使用，經濟及人口成長等社經統計資料，並將歷年資料迴歸分析，建立各相關參數之合理預測公式，以建立一能源使用及CO2排放計算模式，並擬定CO2減量策略，包括提升燃油效率標準、替代能源使用、電動車使用、減低私人載具使用、航空客運轉移等，將之代入模式中模擬計算各減量策略之成效，最後藉由問卷調查之結果，綜合評估可行之最佳減量方案。 研究結果顯示，以CO2排放減量成效而言，應以燃油效率標準提升、航空客運轉移及限制私人載具使用為較優先考量之策略，而電動車的使用，應輔以發電效率的提升，再生能源的使用(發電)方可達到較佳的效果，液態石油氣的使用則對於CO2的減量效果並不顯著。另外若以回歸至2000年之排放水平為CO2減量目標，則由問卷調查結果為依據所得之綜合評估結果顯示，在2020年時燃油效率標準需較現今提昇68%，航空運輸需轉移60%由高鐵乘載，限制20%之私人載具使用量，電動小客車取代一般汽油車之比例達11%，為最佳減量組合方案。

The CO2 emission from Transportation Sector is one of the major sectors that contributes to the total CO2 emission in Taiwan. It is necessary to consider and adjust the transport policies in the future to achieve CO2 abatement target and sustainable development of Transportation Sector. The emissions forecasting model was developed in this study which covers both passenger and freight transport. The mitigation strategies considered in this study include corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) standards, alternative fuel (LPG), electric vehicles, limitation of private-vehicles use and transfer of domestic airline passengers to the speed train. And with the assistance of questionnaire results from experts in the transportation sector, a best CO2 mitigation strategy for the Transportation Sector can be concluded. The results pointed out that the promotion of CAEF standards, transfer of airline passengers and limitation of private-vehicles use are the prior policies for effective CO2 reduction. And the use of electric vehicles should be combined with the promotion of generator efficiency or with the development of green-power to achieve the best mitigation result. The alternative fuel of LPG showed negligible effect for CO2 reduction in the Transportation Sector. The best CO2 mitigation strategy, as chosen by the model simulation and questionnaires' result to hold the CO2 emissions in 2020 to 2000 level of emissions, turns out to promote CAFE standards up to 68%, transfer 60% of airline passengers to speed train, more than 20% limit of private vehicles use and replace over 11% of gasoline vehicles by electric vehicles.