捷運系統票價彈性之研究

Abstract

本研究擬利用個體選擇行為理論，構建台北都會區運具選擇模式，從而瞭解捷運系統與其他替代運具的票價彈性與其他服務水準彈性，以供捷運公司研擬行銷策略，及作為相關單位提昇大眾運輸市場佔有率之參考。本研究利用多項及巢式羅吉特模式來作分析與校估，替選方案包含主要運具與捷運的接駁運具。主要運具包含（捷運、公車、汽車、機車、計程車）、捷運的接駁運具包含（步行、計程車、公車、機車）。 本研究以台北市北區的通勤者為研究對象並利用顯示性偏好法蒐集資料。多項羅吉特模式校估結果中，發現個人社經特性之性別、個人所得與機車持有數及旅次的次要目地(接送小孩)等因素及運具的服務水準如：車內時間、總成本/個人所得是影響都會區運具選擇的重要變數。由巢式羅吉特模式校估結果中，發現公車、捷運-以步行接駁與捷運-以公車接駁三者在同一巢中的模式較佳，表示大眾運具間之相關性較高。於彈性計算中，發現時間彈性約為費率彈性的2~4倍，表示時間的重要性大於費率。利用尖離峰來作市場區隔後，校估結果發現尖峰旅次較離峰旅次重視時間效用；而離峰旅次較尖峰旅次重視成本效用。 政策分析中發現，捷運採取免費雙向公車接駁將可以提昇捷運-以公車接駁市場佔有率1.40%。本研究結果可作為規劃者進行定價與研擬策略之參考。

Research on price elasticities of rapid transit system provides insights into how riders respond to price changes and is valuable for developing effective pricing policy. This study employs multinomial logit and nested logit models to examine the choices of primary modes and rapid transit access/egress modes. Various fare and service elasticities are computed from these choice models. The empirical analysis, using the data collected in the Taipei metropolis area, indicates that socio demographics and level of services are important factors affecting urban mode choice, and the nested logit model with bus, rapid transit–walk access and rapid transit–bus in a nest, is statistically superior to the multinomial logit model. The elasticity estimates demonstrate that rapid transit riders are insensitive to changes in fares and are approximately two to four times as sensitive to changes in travel time as changes in fares and off-peak time users tend to be more sensitive to fare changes and less sensitive to time changes than peak users. Different Policy scenarios related to changes of price and service characteristics are also evaluated. The implications for time-of-day fare program and fare bus transfer policy are discussed.