捷運站區土地使用變遷之模擬分析-以台北捷運木柵線為例

Abstract

隨著都市化的發展，汽機車的數量急遽增加，壅塞的交通狀況衍生出各式的都市問題，嚴重影響都市中居民的生活品質。近年來都市永續發展與環境保護的觀念引進國內，政府企圖以大眾運輸導向發展(Transit-oriented development, TOD)來解決都市問題，期望藉由大眾運輸系統之建構，引導居住、工作、購物、休閒等活動空間於大眾運輸路線廊帶上分佈，以塑造高可居性、可及性以及有效率的都市發展形態與土地利用模式。過去國內探討TOD的研究，大多數在探討TOD政策的執行，可以達到何種的影響，或是以如何的都市設計概念來引導TOD。過去的文獻已逐步確認3Ds (density、diversity、design) 的建成環境對達成TOD的發展目標和效益有正面的影響。但對於這些TOD規劃策略是否會實現3Ds的建成環境，則缺少實證研究的確認，有待進行探索。 本研究目的在分析TOD規劃策略是否會實現3Ds的建成環境，首先建構捷運站區周邊土地使用變遷模擬系統，並將其應用在模擬TOD策略執行後對捷運站區周遭土地使用變遷的影響，進而研擬符合台灣環境背景的大眾運輸導向發展策略。研究方法採用多項羅吉特模式來建立土地使用變遷的轉換規則，並以多主體系統的NetLogo軟體建立土地使用變遷模擬系統；實例分析對象選擇台北捷運木柵線之大安站、科技大樓站和六張犁站，以三個類型相似的捷運站區資料來進行羅吉特模式的校估，用以得此類型的捷運站區土地使用變遷規則。並利用調整鄰近捷運站土地的法定建蔽率及法定容積率的方式，來模擬執行大眾運輸導向發展規劃策略對其土地使用變遷的影響。 研究結果發現，以土地使用強度來看，當策略為同時增加容積率及減少建蔽率時，土地使用將集中在捷運站出口附近發展；當策略為提高建蔽率時，土地使用的強度將均勻的分布在場站周圍。若以土地使用的混合程度來看，當策略為提高建蔽率時，土地使用則會有高度的混合使用。但在實際應用下，在提高土地使用強度與土地使用混合程度時，依舊需要考量到地區的容受力，才符合大眾運輸導向發展的目的。

Urbanization increases motor-vehivles, worsens traffic condition and deteriorates citizen’s living environment. In recent years, environmental protection and sustainable development are getting more and more important and government tries to employ transit-oriented development (TOD) to solve various urban development problems. TOD locates residential, working, shopping and recreational activities along transit systems to shape livable, accessible and efficient urban form as well as land use pattern. Most of the previous TOD studies focus on strategy development and impact of strategy implementation. The past researches have confirmed that 3Ds (density, diversity, design) circumstance achieves the goals and benefits of TOD but ignored whether the planned TOD strategies really create the 3Ds circumstance. This study aims at verifying whether the planned TOD strategies create 3Ds circumstance. The research began with setting up the simulation model of land use change around metro stations. Then the developed model was applied to simulate the land-use change impacts of TOD strategies, on which the TOD strategies for Taiwan’s background were recommended. Multinomial logit model was applied to develop land use change rules and NetLogo software, a multi-agent system, was used to set up the simulation model. The land use observations in Daan station area, Technology Building station area and Liuzhangli station area along metro Brown Line were used as sample for calibrating land use change rules. By changing the legal ratios of floor space to site space (RFS) and building coverage to site space (RBS), the land use change impacts of implementing TOD strategies were explored.

The simulation results reached the following findings. First, for land use density, simultaneously increasing RFS and RBS concentrates land use development in the access areas of metro stations. However, increasing RBS only distributes land use development evenly across metro station areas. Second, for land use diversity, increasing RBS enhances mixed land-use. Finally, development capacity of metro station areas should be concerned when raising land use intensity and diversity for promoting TOD.