捷運沿線土地使用變遷之影響因素分析—台北捷運板南線之實證研究

Abstract

土地資源自古一直是人類重要的資源。雖然許多學者很早便開始從事土地方面相關的研究，但由於人類社會的進步，對於土地資源的使用方式也不斷更新。因此，對於土地使用變遷的研究也必須不斷更新與進步。以台北都會區為例，在民國85年至89年間完成了台北捷運初期路網的通車營運，而台北都會區內的土地使用很可能會受到捷運影響而變遷；有鑒於此，探討捷運沿線土地使用變遷之影響因素即為本研究的主要目的。 在空間與時間的界定上，本研究以台北捷運藍線為中心，左右各四百公尺的寬帶為研究範圍。整理研究範圍100m × 100m之土地網格為樣本，將民國83年土地使用界定為變遷前，民國95年土地使用界定為變遷後，使用多項羅吉特模型來探討捷運沿線土地使用變遷之影響因素。 研究結果發現：(1)對原為未開發的土地，相鄰分區之住宅使用比例、未開發(農業)使用分區、公告現值差額、至捷運車站距離及鄰道路寬度為顯著影響其變遷的因素；(2)對原為住宅使用的土地，人口數、公告現值、至捷運車站距離、網格在捷運沿線200公尺以內、鄰道路寬度、相鄰分區之未開發比例、相鄰分區之商業使用比例、住宅土地使用分區及商業土地使用分區為顯著影響變遷的因素；(3)台北捷運藍線沿線土地使用變遷之影響因素確實會因為不同的變遷方式而不同；(4)人口成長率在各模式中均不顯著，可能原因為台北捷運藍線沿線土地在民國83年時已高度開發。

Land resources have been one of mankind's most important resources all the time from ancient times. Though scholars have studied land and related topics from early on, the methods for utilizing land resources are constantly updated, paralleling the society's progress. Therefore, studies on land use changes must also stay updated and progressive. Consider Taipei metropolitan area, for instance: the Taipei metro system began its initial network operation between 1996 and 2000 and changed the land use of metropolitan area. In consequence, the analysis of influence factors in the land use changes along metro line becomes the main purpose of this research. To specify "space" and "time", this research used the Metro Blue Line as its center, and the four-hundred meters to the left and right of its width as the area of study. The studied area was charted with a 100m by 100m grid cells as sample, with the land use before 1994 demarcated as "before the change", and use in 2006 as "after the change," using multinomial logit model to explore the influence factors in the land use changes along the metro line. This research concludes that 1) for the undeveloped land, the percentage of adjacent grid cells in residential use, undeveloped (agriculture) land use zoning, announced land current value margins, the distance to the metro station and the width of the adjacent roads are the significant factors; 2) for the residential land, the population, announced land current value, the distance to the metro station, within 200 meters of the metro line, the width of the adjacent roads, the percentage of adjacent grid cells in undeveloped land, the percentage of adjacent grid cells in commercial use, residential land use zoning, and commercial land use zoning are the significant factors; 3) the influence factors in the land use change along the metro line will, in fact, differ according to different situations of change; 4) the population growth is not significant in any of the models, perhaps due to the fact that the areas along Metro Blue Line are already highly developed since 1994.