使用狀態空間模型估計起迄資料

Abstract

在交通管理分析上， O-D matrix 扮演著越來越重要的角色，因此也吸引了很多估計 O-D matrix 方面的研究。在這篇論文中，我們使用時間序列中的State Space Model 來描述動態的 O-D matrix 並允許 transition matrix 是未知的情況下，且在常態的假設下去估計 O-D matrix。

As O-D flow matrices becoming more and more important for many dynamic traffic network control and management analysis, approaches to estimate such matrices from traffic counts have attracted much research interest over the past decade, and considerable estimation algorithms have been published in the literature. The dynamic O-D estimation approaches are relatively new. Their current status of development and applications are far from being as well recognized as those of static models. Therefore, in this thesis we formulate the dynamic O-D matrices by a state-space model and propose an algorithm to estimate them under normality.