台鐵貨運成本效益分析之研究－以東砂北運為例

Abstract

高鐵預計於94年10月通車，將吸走台鐵部分的長途旅客，使台鐵的虧損更趨嚴重(自67年至92年累積虧損為1,308.20億元)。93年交通部運輸研究所提出的「國家貨運發展政策白皮書」，即明確指出台鐵未來應走向「客貨並重」，故如何落實客貨並重政策、開拓新的客貨來源，將是台鐵未來執行力及競爭力的展現。惟台鐵原有汰換機車及貨車之計畫，行政院因故核定暫緩辦理貨車部份。因此，在貨車沒有購車的預算下，如何執行客貨並重政策，並為台鐵貨運收入開啟一條生財之路，是本篇論文的主要研究動機。 就總體運輸之外部成本而言，運具能源耗用所產生的溫室效應、空氣污染、噪音污染、肇事成本等，鐵路運輸所產生之外部成本遠較公路運輸為低。而大眾運輸所隱含的政策涵義，在於降低社會總成本及社會資源浪費，並力求社會資源的公平合理分配，故就政府貨運政策而言，在不增加鐵公路總體運輸內部成本的前提下，應儘可能轉移公路貨物運輸而改走鐵路，以利總體外部成本的降低。復以就增裕台鐵貨運收入的角度而言，砂石貨運市場當是目標市場之首選。 經本文實地訪問台鐵運務處貨運相關部門，得知東砂北運之鐵路砂石運輸為目前台鐵無需開發即有運輸需求之市場。雖然86年台鐵即提出之貨車及機車汰換計畫，行政院核定貨車購車計畫暫緩辦理；但在沒有購買貨車預算下，如何以最少的經費為台鐵尋找可行性方案，根據本研究之分析結果顯示，應以修改現有貨車及加開貨運專列方式來經營東砂北運。 台鐵運程在40公里以上，與公路砂石運輸價格比較，即具競爭力；以邊際收益觀之，台鐵在目前的經濟規模下，每天只要多開一列貨車，若每年運輸350天，則每年的邊際收益約為4,577萬元至9,801萬元。以財務管理增額現金流量之觀點，每列次增額現金流量約13萬元，每年增額現金流量至少為4,577萬元至9,801萬元，顯示台鐵東砂北運為一極具競爭力之可行性方案。

The accumulated loss of TRA from 1978 to 2003 reaches NT$130.82 billion. Since Oct 2005 High-Speed Railway begins operation, TRA passengers of long distance train will be shared by High-speed Railway.The loss of TRA will be worse. The National Freight service Development Policy White Paper which was proposed by the Research Institute of Communications & Transportation Ministry explicitly pointed out that “equal attention to the passengers and cargo” is the future direction of TRA.The appearance of competitive & executive abitity for TRA will depend on how to maintain old businesses and also explore new markets. There was a plan to replace new railway trains. However, the Executive Yuan decided to hold cargo train replacement, which causes the whole replacement project suspended. The objective of the dissertation is to find a way to improve Freight service of TRA under the circumstances described above. From the view of external cost of overall transportation, railway is the most cost effective vehicle in terms of external cost if we count the cost of green house effect, air pollution, noise pollution, and accidental cost. The purpose of mass transportation policy is to reduce general social cost, public resources waist and to re-allocate public resource more fairly. Under the precondition of without increasing the internal cost, the policy of governmngt freight service should shift the road transportation to railway to reduce general external cost. It improves the revenue of TRA.The freight service of sand & gravel shall be the primary candidate. Regarding the feedback from transportation department of TRA, “East sand to the North” delivery by railway has already been requered and no need to explove the market. Although TRA proposed Freight train and locomotive replacement project during 1997, it was hold by the Executive Yuan.Faceing the situation of no budget, TRA should look for a feasible way witer mininum cost to solve the problem. According to the analysis of this dissertation, “East sand to North” delivery could be managed by both fixing existing freight vehide and increase special freight train. Regarding freight cost of sand & gravel, railway can be more competitive than road trucking from distance more than 40KM. TRA can achieve from NT$ 45.77 million to NT$ 98.01 millions marginal revenue based on current economy of scale by adding one extra train freight per day (350 fright days). From financial point of view, each train freight can insert NT$130,000, which generates from NT$ 45.77 millions to NT$ 98.01 millions per year of cash inflow. Therefore “Freight service for East Sand & gravel to North” can be an attractived proposal to improve the competitiveability of TRA.