銀行可動用資金部位決定關鍵因素及個案解析

Abstract

銀行屬高財務槓桿運用行業，為應付存款戶隨時提取資金、借款戶資金需求及銀行本身從事各項投資，促使銀行必須隨時保持足夠之可動用資金以利支應。鑑於近年來國內經濟環境丕變，金融產品多樣化，促使國人投資理財觀念改變，進而衝擊銀行資金來源與去路穩定性，增加銀行主管對可動用資金管理的困難度。本研究乃從可動用資金來源與去路之主要項目，在既有之外部影響銀行資金管理因素與影響銀行資金管理之內部因素下，進行分析，藉以建立可動用資金部位之解析模式。 本研究係參考RALPH H. SPRAGUE,JR.,（1971）之財務規劃模式修正後提出本文之研究關係式，並以國內某大型行庫83年7月至88年6月之原始資料 ,依存款、放款、投資、借入款、存款準備金、總存款、總放款及其他項目等分類重新整理，並以月平均金額按時間先後排序，以環比方式求出變動量，再依各統計計算方法及變異數分析，來計算求出變數相關係數，進而決定變數顯著性因子，最後建立該國內某大型行庫之可動用資金部位定式。並以該行庫實際資料進行定式檢測，其結果差異甚微，可提供該行庫可動用資金部位變動預測之參考。 觀察可動用資金部位變化，可對資金來源的變動係數與資金去路變動係數間之變化情形，藉此變數係數之變化情形來判定有關可動用資金將產生的變化。在季節性或特殊項目之資金來源與去路產生巨幅變動下有助於銀行預估可動用資金部位，俾利於事前資金管理規劃或策略調整。在銀行業目前競爭日趨激烈狀況下，除了將調整各銀行內部組織以增加行政效率及業務擴展策略，再創新尋求資金來源與去路外，仍需積極規劃管理可動用資金部位，應是未來各銀行為滿足及迎合顧客之資金需求所應加強及努力的重要課題，本研究以可動用資金部位關鍵因素之決定與解析模式，盼可提供各銀行在管理可動用資金部位時，能依其本身之資金結構及其狀況尋找出個別銀行可動用資金部位定式，以供其財務規劃、預測等預估可動用資金部位之參考。

The banking is a kind of high-level financial leverage business. In order to handle the depositors' unexpected withdrawal, the borrowers' demand of fund, and the bank's investment, the bank must always maintain adequate disposable funds. The recent rigid change in economic environment and the diversification of the financial product have made the public keep changing their investment strategies, as a result, impact the stability of the bank's funds sources and requirements and increase the difficulties for the bank officials to manage the disposable funds. Based on the classification of the main requirements and sources of disposable funds, this study is to establish an analytical model for disposable funds position under current external political strategic factors as well as the internal circumstantial factors, which will both influence a bank's funds management. With proper modification and reference to the financial planning model of Ralph H. Sprague, Jr., (1971), this study is to raise the relative based on the original data (from July 1994 to June 1999) of a large-scale local bank. We first categorized and restructured its deposits, loans, investment, borrow funds, deposits reserve, total deposits, total loans and some other items, all based on monthly average amounts in a timely order to obtain the variation with chain approach. With several methods of statistics and variables analysis, we figured out the relative coefficients of the variables, and furthermore defined the obvious factors of the variables. We then came up with the format of disposable funds position for that large-scale local bank. By observing the position change of disposable funds, we can better understand the difference in variable coefficients of funds for both sources and requirements, and thus properly justify the ongoing variation of disposable funds. During heavy volatility for seasonal or special reasons, it can also help the bank to estimate disposable funds position so as to make prior funds management plans or strategic adjustments. Being in the increasingly competitive environment, it is indispensable for the banks to reorganize so as to increase their administrative efficiency, and innovate their business developing strategies, and thereby search for new sources and requirements of funds. Furthermore, the banks have to aggressively plan and manage their disposable funds position, which are critical for the banks to meet the customers' needs of the funds and maximize the bank's profits. By defining the key factors of disposable funds position and analyzing the analytical model, this study intends to provide the bank with some references while estimating and forecasting the disposable funds positions for financial plans based on its own funds structures and financial situations.