半導體業財務預測模式之建構--台灣晶圓代工廠之個案研究

Abstract

針對「半導體產業」之電子產業對我國製造業的重要性，且就產業特性往往會影響財務績效的表現。因此，本研究就「半導體產業」以「台灣晶圓代工廠」在財務預測的財務效益上做一個案研究，使用實際數據資料運用到預測模式中。本研究的貢獻在於提高晶圓代工公司的財務預測效率，並且可當作晶圓代工業在做財務預測時的一個方向。所做的財務分析結果，能夠指引出公司在經營活動中所面臨的問題點及經營上的成功因素，能夠針對這些關鍵點來作重點式加強管理，必能提高公司的營運績效。經本研究實證，得到下列結論： 1. 資本支出的預測：不僅需對未來年度作資本支出預測，更應考慮未來半導體產業之供需，以配合各種景氣循環作合理的時期產能及高科技先進設備的投資。 2. 銷售額的預測：預測者應有合理的產業趨勢評估(外部評估)，以提供較合理的財務預測結果。 3. 以台灣晶圓代工產業而言，其內部評估及內部控制績效的落實，才能獲取高獲利率。其可控制變數為(1)產能利用率極大化(2)產品組合極佳化(3)良率的提昇(4)嚴格的成本控制(費用及人力資源)。

According to the importance of the semiconductor industry in Taiwan's manufacturing industry, the industry classification will influence the financial forecast efficiency. In this study we want to empirically verify the financial forecast model for the "semiconductor industry" with "wafer foundry fab". We used real data and parameters to test the model. The contribution of this research is to improve the financial forecast efficiency of the wafer foundry business, and it will be helpful in setting up a forecast goal. The forecast result can highlight the problem and key successful factors of operation. The company can use the key factors to manage and to improve the operation performance. In this study, we found: 1. Capital expenditure forecast: It should not only forecast the next year, but also should make long term planning to reconcile the demand and supply. And it should adjust the capacity expansion timing and advanced equipment. 2. Sales forecast: The forecaster should trace the industry trend (outside evaluation), therefore can submit the reasonable result accordingly. 3. For the wafer foundry business, they should ascertain the internal evaluation and performance control, in order to achieve high profitability. The major control parameters are (1) maximizing the utilization (2) optimizing the product mix (3) improving fab yield (4) strictly controlling cost (expenses and headcount).