應用專家知識與案例式推理法於晶圓代工業產品成本預估

Abstract

在變化快速的環境中，一個公司的未來趨勢可以從該公司的財務報表中略知ㄧ二，公司的經營決策者也必須藉由財務報表來獲取有關資訊，以便做出未來營運方向的決策。因此財務報表的正確性與否就成了關鍵所在，財務報表中預估資料如能更準確，則更有利於高層經營決策者做出更好的判斷。 本論文針對在半導體產業中為了能更精準且快速預估出每一個產品在未來月份的生產成本，因此利用專家知識/案例推理法來分析，試著比對出每一個產品的預估成本，或是比對出相似的成本並加以計算出新產品的成本，以改善原本系統的執行效率及減少人工手動校正的頻率;此外也能提供會計部門進行財務預測時，以較準確的預估成本資料進行利潤分析，進而提供高層經營單位更精準掌握未來生產的成本，以對未來經營的方向作出及時且正確的決策。

In fast-changing environments, organizations are forced to face with turbulent and highly competitive situations. The future trend of a company could be forecasted from the company's financial statements. Business decision-makers mainly use the financial statements to obtain relevant information in order to make decisions on the future operations and directions of enterprises. Therefore the accuracy of financial statements has become the key to make better judgments for decision makers. To achieve the objective of calculating the production costs precisely in the semiconductor industry, this research proposes to apply the Expert Knowledge / Case-Based Reasoning approaches to analyze the forecast costs, and try to compare with similar product costs to decide the forecast cost of new product. This research would be helpful to increase the efficiency of IT systems and reduce manual modifications of production costs. In addition, the proposed approach provides reliable accounting statements for organizations, so that they can have a more precise profit analysis. High-level business decision makers can thus make timely and accurate decisions.