多階段投標決策輔助系統之研究

Abstract

營造業中，工程專案的取得維繫著營造公司的永續發展，藉由不斷的競標與適當的決策是公司獲得工程專案的重要關鍵。近年來由於電腦及網路的普及化，工程招標資訊除一般大眾媒體外，逐漸都會在網路上公告。由於網路資訊取得較為容易、迅速、成本亦較低，公司每天所須檢視之投標資訊龐大，在有限之資源及能力下，公司不可能針對每一個所蒐集到的標案投標，而必須決定是否投標或是暫先投入多少的評估人力。 投標過程可分為二階段：標案之評估及投標價格之決定。文獻中所發表的競標模式大都是著重在最佳投標價格之決定，只有少數探討標案之評估階段。在評估階段，決策者必須評估所須投入的人力、是否要審視標單、是否要訪查業主、是否要至現地觀察、是否要算標單及要以何種精確度計算標單等，而這些決策所須考慮的因素不僅限於傳統競標模式的量化變數，亦包括了許多非量化及糢糊的變數。本研究主要考慮在不確定性環境下，以流程分析（IDEF0）及電腦模擬工具（STROBOSCOPE）發展一投標決策輔助系統，除決定最終標價外亦包括標案評估期之各種決策，並希望藉由此模式可以解釋諸如為何有些標案之成本採用粗估方式，有些採用精算方式；為何有些標案在詳細了解工地現場或業主後便決定不再繼續投標等傳統競標模式無法解釋的現象。

The survival of a construction contractor depends on continuous flow of awarded projects. To obtain projects, the contractor is required to search project opportunities on a daily basis and bid on suitable projects. Recently because of the widespread use of computers and internet, more and more bid invitations including public work project are announced on the internet. Because of the easy access to digitalized business opportunities, the amount of bid invitation information for the contractor for review each day is increased. However, limited by the available resource and time, the contractor must decide the level of effort he wants to be devoted to for each invitation. The decision of bidding includes the level of effort the contractor to devote in the bidding process, and the bidding price. Many bidding models have been developed. However, most of them focus on the determination of the optimal bidding price. Few dealt with the issue of determining the optimal level of effort the contractor should be devoted to, which require the consideration of many qualitative and fuzzy variables instead of quantitative variables as in the traditional bidding models. The proposed research will focus on the analysis of variables that may be considered to determine the level of effort under a uncertain competitive environment. We expect the model be able to explain questions such as why a contractor roughly estimated one project but estimate another project in a great detail; and why he gave up the bidding opportunity after an on-site visit or query about the project owner.