以社會經濟與土地使用因素探討台北都會區總體旅運型態

Abstract

對於都市規劃者而言，如何進行最適當的都市規劃以及都會人口遷移的計畫一直是學者研究的課題。由文獻回顧可知，過去國外有許多對於旅行者社經特性、都市結構對於旅運型態影響關係之研究，然而國內對於總體旅運型態之研究，多就傳統運輸規劃程序之旅次發生，研究旅次產生與吸引之相關因素，而對於其他旅運型態之影響因素之總體研究較少，而國外研究中提到之旅運型態之影響因素，例如土地使用混合度、都市密度、工作居住均衡等變數，在國內都會區旅運型態之驗證亦少，多為概念性的敘述。另外，國內亦少有以總體之角度探討旅運型態相關因素之研究。因此，本研究乃進行台北都會區旅運型態與總體土地使用、社會經濟因素關係之研究。 本研究對於台北都會區旅運型態之探討，先以敘述統計分析歷年旅運型態變化情況，進一步以相關分析方法，探討各項人口社經因素、土地使用型態以及其他總體特性對於旅運型態之相關性，再以多元迴歸建立分析模式，探討旅運型態和土地使用、社會經濟因素之變動關係。 由模式分析結果可知，在社經因素方面，在旅次產生及吸引模式，各項社經條件之人口均影響顯著。大眾運輸受到高所得家戶以及十六歲以上學生之影響；小汽車使用隨高所得家戶以及持有小汽車家戶變動；機車之使用比例與總體社經變數之關係則並不顯著；而旅行時間之長短則僅與十六歲以上學生數有顯著關係。在土地使用因素方面，都市結構與旅運型態之關係，都市密度、土地使用混合度以及工作/居住均衡均呈現顯著影響。且藉著迴歸係數及彈性分析，都市規劃者可以了解某項交通分區社經與土地使用因素的變化與旅次產生、旅次吸引、運具使用比例以及旅運時間變化之可能變化程度。

From the literature review, in the past are many foreign researches on the relationships between travel patterns, traveler socioeconomic factors and land use patterns. However, most of domestic researches follow traditional trip generation analysis, exploring the relationship between trip generation and socioeconomic variables, while other travel pattern indices, such as mode shares and mean travel time, are not yet given much explanation in aggregate analysis. Furthermore, many urban form factors that are considered affecting travel patterns are not yet verified domestically. Therefore, an aggregate analysis was conducted empirically in this paper to explore relationships between land use, socioeconomic factors and travel patterns. In this paper, first, a descriptive statistical analysis was conducted to analyze the present situations and variations of travel patterns in all previous censuses in Taipei metropolitan area. Second, correlation methods are utilized to analyze the relationships between socioeconomic, land use variables and travel patterns. Afterward, regression models are constructed for further explorations. The empirical analysis shows the relationships between travel patterns and census tract characteristics. Furthermore, from the regression coefficients and its elasticity analysis, possible levels of travel pattern changes with the variations of socioeconomic and land use factors are presented.