銷售預測與庫存管理改善的個案研究

Abstract

本論文是一個案研究，係就一個半導體公司在銷售預測系統與庫存管理方面所做的改善措施。此部份研討係該公司在進行企業資源整合系統(ERP)專案時，因應實際需要而必須進行的子專案。因此所面對的經營環境如各項產品的生命週期、長短交貨期、產銷協調過程與庫存處理策略等皆參考實際資料而加以考量。其中銷售預測常受限於市場影響而在生產排程與規劃上，成為一個無法掌握的因素。如今藉由資訊科技的幫助，吾人可即時的藉由人力的投入而加以適時的回應，最後再配合持續的追蹤考核與改善，企業管理者亦可在銷售預估準確度的提升與整體庫存的降低上得到改進，進而提升供應鏈的最佳表現。

This thesis presents a case study based on a semiconductor company in improving its Sales forecast and inventory management. It was developed in conjunction with an effort in implementing a corporate integration system (CIS). The work took consideration of practical product and production issues such as multiple product life cycles, different production turn around time (TAT), sales/production solutioning process, and inventory disposition strategy. Forecast variation due to market fluctuation was always an uncertain factor in production control and production planning process. Through the implementation of information technology, it is now possible to achieve real time feedback and make proper response with proper human intervention. Together with continuous improvement mechanism implementation, it provided better monitoring information for top management to oversee its supply chain’s overall performance through improved forecast accuracy, reduced finish goods (FG) inventory, and reduced wafer in process (WIP).