半導體IC代工產品供貨模式之個案研究

Abstract

需求預測不準幾乎已成為半導體業界的常態，尤其對於IC產品的代工廠而言，不但供應鏈的長度較長且供應的產品眾多，所需要的管理知識也較為複雜 ，雖然預測的技術日新月異，但目前仍沒有一個完全有效的預測方式來提供作為供應鏈庫存準備的依據，同時在這樣的庫存水準下達到客戶滿意的供貨品質。以個案 M 公司而言，在對 P 公司的代工業務中，供給不足常導致缺料而受到客戶抱怨，再加上整體供應鏈庫存水位始終高居不下，這些重複發生的問題形成供需間的阻礙與衝突，不但造成客戶與供應商間的嫌隙，同時形成供應商庫存成本與趕貨(Hot lot)成本增加的問題。需求的波動是市場存在且經常發生的現象，透過長鞭效應的放大，往往令源頭供應商吃盡苦頭，此一研究希望透過在個案公司中長期紀錄的供需歷史資料分析，解決此類供應鏈供貨模式問題。供應供貨模式的種類有很多種，目前 M 公司是以客戶每月提供需求預測來準備庫存 ，再以推式( push )的供應鏈從事生產，M 公司接獲訂單後釋放半成品庫存中的在製品，經過後續封裝測試等流程，再將成品運送給客戶，本研究希望透過供貨模式的改變，模擬建立一成品庫存倉庫於客戶端，再藉由客戶需求耗用來拉動生產補給，透過這樣一個供應商管理存貨( VMI )模擬歷史資料的方式，觀察生管指標在推式生產改為拉式 ( pull )生產的變化，所觀察的指標包括 TDD與供應鏈整體庫存。

It almost becomes the normal state that demand forecast isn't predictable in the industry of the semiconductor. Especially in IC OEM factory, not only the longer supply chain but also the more numerous products in it, and the knowledge of management needed is also comparatively complex .Although the methodology of the forecast progress rapidly .None of methodology can prepare the target inventory well in the supply chain till now. And, the customer satisfies with the level of such inventory .In the OEM case study between M company and P company. It is disaster which comes high level of the supply chain inventory after P company complained of supply shortage in succession. The repeated problem result in conflict and obstruction between supply and demand .These problems are in aggravated relationship and cost increasing in inventory and hot lot. The variation of demand appear in market with frequency. Due to “Bullwhip Effect”, the supplier miss direction in the preparing for target inventory. The purpose in this paper want to analyze supply history of M company and find out the better model for supply chain management. There are many kinds of supply chain models . Now ,the model in M company is a “ push “ supply chain. M company prepare target inventory for the demand forecast of P company every month ,then M company release the WIP from bank when they get orders from P company , the finish goods will be delivered to P company after assembly and final testing process .The paper would like to build a virtual warehouse through the change of supply chain model and product depend on finish goods consuming. By the ‘VMI” simulation of M company’s supply history, the change of production control index will be monitored the deviation between “push” and “ pull “ supply chain model. The production control index includes TDD and Target Inventory .