問題導向之能力集合分析及應用

Abstract

問題導向之能力集合分析與應用 學生：江勁毅 指導教授：曾國雄博士 國立交通大學交通運輸研究所 摘 要 對決策分析而言，能力集合分析是一種新興但卻相當有效的方法。此方法強調對任一決策問題而言，都存在著與其相對應解決此問題所需的能力集，包括知識、技能、資訊等。能力集合分析本身存在著兩個領域：問題領域及能力領域；而從這兩個領域則引伸出兩類研究問題：(1)給定一個問題或一個問題集，則其相對應所需之能力集為何？如何有效且具效率地得到所需之能力集？(2)給定一個能力集，則應用此能力集能解決哪些問題而創造出最大的價值。本論文主要是探討第一類的問題，問題導向之能力集合分析，並側重於數學模式之陳述、分析及其應用。 在問題導向之能力集合分析中，主要可分成二個階段：(1)如何確認解決問題所需之能力集為何？以及本身已具有之能力集為何？(2)如何用最有效且具效率的方法得到所需之能力集以解決問題。針對第一個階段的問題，本論文蒐集相關之研究而整理出確認及分類能力集的方式。至於第二階段的問題，本論文則從兩種不同的角度來分析、探討所需能力集的獲得：(1)以逐步擴展的方式從決策者已獲得之能力集擴展至所需要之能力集；(2)藉助外援，找到一個最佳的成員組合，其中成員已具有部分所需之能力，來幫助決策者成功地解決問題。 資訊科技的日新月異，也連帶衝擊到人們的決策行為與方式。為了瞭解資訊科技如何幫助及影響人們的決策，我們從決策要素及決策環境的觀點，來討論資訊科技對決策所產生之助益及影響。此外，為了對決策問題更清楚，我們從能力集的角度將決策問題分為程序性問題、混合程序性問題、模糊問題及挑戰性問題，並分別討論資訊科技對這些決策問題的影響。同時本論文也探討資訊科技能對能力集分析方法能提供何種助益。 關鍵字：決策分析、能力集合、最佳擴展、階段擴展、模糊集合涵蓋、資訊科技

Problem-Oriented Competence Set Analysis and Applications Student: Chin-I Chiang Advisor: Dr. Gwo-Hshiung Tzeng Institute of Traffic and Transportation National Chiao Tung University Abstract Competence set analysis (CSA) is a new but rather effective means for decision-making. This method highlights that for a decision problem, there exists a corresponding competence set consisting of knowledge, skills, information, etc, to successfully solve the problem. Therefore, CSA has two inherent domains: competence domain and problem domain, in which lead to two kinds of research problems: (i) Given a problem or set of problems, what is the needed competence sets, and how to acquire them effectively and efficiently? (ii) Given a set of competence, what kind of problems can be solved to maximize values? The dissertation presented here investigates the first type of problem, problem-oriented competence set analysis, with emphasis on mathematical analysis, formulations and applications. There are two stages in problem-oriented CSA: (i) How to identify the needed competence set for solving the problem? In addition, what is the decision maker’s already acquired skill set? (ii) What are the most effective and efficient methods to acquire the needed competence set to solve the problem? For the problems of the first stage, this study marshaled the related research together and then suggested the ways of identifying and classifying the competence set. As to the second stage, the problem of acquisition of needed competence set was explored from two different perspectives. One is to gradually expand decision maker’s competence set from the already acquired skill set to the needed competence set. The other viewpoint is to find the best combination of individuals possessing some of the needed competence to help decision maker successfully solve the problem. The rapidly innovations and changes of Information technology (IT) have brought impacts on humans’ decision behavior as well as decision methods. In order to know how IT can help and affect people in decision-making, we discussed how IT could help and affect decision making from the point of view of decision elements and environment. In addition, to see the decision problems more clearly, we provide a classification of decision problems including routine problems, mixed routine problems, fuzzy problems and challenging problems. Finally, we discussed how IT could help in competence set analysis. Keywords: Decision analysis, competence sets, optimal expansion, stage expansion, fuzzy set-covering, information technology