建立城際運輸永續發展指標系統--社會公平面

Abstract

「永續發展」一般在追求社會公平、經濟效率與環境保護等三個向度的目標，因為運輸部門在這三個向度均可能會產生負面效果，其中城際運輸系統具有運輸距離長、轉運行為普遍…等特性，所以城際運輸永續發展實為一重要之研究課題。除此之外，「永續發展」的三個向度存在著相互抵觸的關係，在未能妥善地處理相互衝突的關係之前，本研究決定先從較少被探討的社會公平面來著墨。綜合上述，本研究希望從社會公平面的角度，建立一套「城際運輸永續發展指標系統」，瞭解我國目前城際運輸系統在社會公平面的永續發展程度，並依據研究結果作為政府未來制訂相關政策的參考。 本研究採用目標體系的方式，配合指標訂定原則，產生初始指標集合。透過功能重複性、AHP問卷、資料可得性等篩選方式，得到決選指標集合。應用「模糊推論」方法將決選指標予以整合，運用軟體Matlab來建立模糊規則資料庫，使用「最大-最小」的整合方式，輔以「重心法」來解模糊化，據以評判我國城際運輸系統之在社會公平面的永續性程度。 研究結果顯示，我國目前的永續發展程度為「中等」；其中以老人與殘障者的基本運輸需求滿足程度較為不足，私人運具的使用者亦為不公平現象的來源之一。為了改善這三項造成不永續的指標，本研究擬定三項「虛擬政策」來加以改進；分析結果顯示，光憑少數政策的改善，並無法顯著地提升我國的永續發展程度，必須從各方面同時持續地進行改善，方有明顯的提升效果。

“Sustainable Development” is generally discussed by three objectives：social equity, economic efficiency, and environmental preservation. Since transportation sector may generate some negative effects on these three objectives and intercity transportation has some special characteristics, the sustainable development of intercity transportation becomes an important issue. Although the conflicts exist among these three objectives, this study focused on the social equity for which was seldom discussed before. The purpose of this study is to build an indicator system to evaluate the sustainable development of intercity transportation in the social equity aspect. Based on this indicator system, the national sustainability of intercity transportation can be measured and the development strategies can be designed. The goal setting method and some setting principles were used to generate the initial indicator set. Based on the examination of functional overlap, the survey of AHP questionnaires, and the feasibility of data acquirement, the final indicator set was decided from the initial indicator set. The fuzzy inference method was used to integrate the final indicator set and the fuzzy rules were built by the Matlab package. The “max-min” method and the “center of gravity” way were used to be the defuzzifier. The results of this study show that, the degree of sustainable development for intercity transportation in Taiwan is “Medium” in the social equity aspect. The essential transportation needs of elders and the disabled are not satisfied enough. Private vehicle users do not play the reasonable cost. In order to improve these unsustainable phenomena, different strategies were designed and evaluated in this study. We found that the effects of most proposed strategies are insignificant. It was concluded that more strategies should be proceeded in parallel to generate significant improvement.