标题: | 以DELPHI法探讨合理工期之研究─以大型铁路工程为例 Study of Justified Work Schedule Using DELPHI Method With Up-scaling Railway Project as Example |
作者: | 刘万正 Wanng Jang-liu 黄 台 生 Tair-Sheng Hwang 运输与物流管理学系 |
关键字: | 铁路工程,期程,德尔菲;专家经验估算式;Scheduling Technique;Macroscopic Expert-estimating Method;Expert-estimating Method |
公开日期: | 2001 |
摘要: | 随着国民所得不断增加,大众对交通运输之需求日益殷切,政府虽极力构建公路网,仍不敷汽机车数量的成长,使得公路运输日趋拥塞。铁路运输因具运输量大、时间准确、安全等优点,政府乃希望藉由改善铁路软硬体设施、设备及营运措施,提高铁路运输的质与量,期吸引民众搭乘,达成抑制汽机车数量并促进经济再成长,因此成为政府近来推动公共建设的重要环节。 依文献工期之估算方法概分三种即:排程细估法、统计计量法及经验巨观估算法,其中排程细估法系依工程作业要径上实体设施设备之要径作业规模乘其单位工时累计得到总工期,本法因需有详尽(即设计完成后)之细项作业及数量,在施工阶段才得以使用。而统计计量法则由大量已完成之详尽工程文献整理分类而得之资料,藉由统计计量得到工期估算式,因此常每隔一段时间即需耗费大量人力整理新资料,以更新原估算式。 至于经验巨观估算法因使用简便,在工务及审议机关广泛使用,以往其工期均倚由资深工程司依其经验估算,个人主观意识浓厚,且经验传承不易,因此本文希望藉由DELPHI法综合多数经验丰富专家意见,获得影响工期之确定与不确定因素及其对应之参数,以建构较客观之经验估算式,期供工程审议机关使用。 While the general public demands more on traffic and transportation thanks to the ever increasing national income, the Government though has its full gears on improving the highway network, highway transportation gets serious congestion by day in failing to cope with the growth of the numbers of automobile and motorcycle. Whereas the railway transportation for providing safe, and massive transportation capacity on schedule, the government hopes to attract the people to take train by improving hardware and software facilities, equipment and operation measures to upgrade railway transportation both in quality and quantity; to inhibit the growing numbers of automobile and motorcycle; and to promote economic growth once again. Consequently, railway transportation has become one of the major links in pushing forward the public reconstruction by the Government.According to documentary study, three methods, respectively, the Scheduling Technique, the Statistic Method and the Macroscopic Expert-estimating Method, are usually applied in estimating the length of work schedule. Wherein, the Scheduling Technique Method solves the total length of work schedule by multiplying the operational scale of key-route of the physical facilities and equipment on the key-route of the project operation by the unit work hour; however, it takes detailed itemized operation and quantity (that is, upon the completion of the design) for this Method to become applicable upon entering the phase of construction. As for the Statistic Method, data are available after lengthy assortment and categorization of massive related documentation that already have been published to solve the work schedule estimate formula, meaning massive manpower is required to be consumed periodically to recompile the data to update the estimate formula.The Macroscopic Expert-estimating Method for being comparatively easier to apply is popularly used among the work engineering and advisory institutes. In the past, expert-estimating has been always done by some senior engineers, meaning a very strong subjective sentiment is involved and it has never been easy to pass down the expert experience. Therefore, this study attempts to generalize opinions from the majority of experts with proved expertise by using the DELPHI Method to identify those certain and uncertain factors that affect the work schedule as well as to find out their relative parameters to recommend more objective expert-estimating formula for the reference by the work advisory institutes. |
URI: | http://140.113.39.130/cdrfb3/record/nctu/#NT900118036 http://hdl.handle.net/11536/68247 |
显示于类别: | Thesis |