情境分析下投資大陸光罩產業的策略選擇

Abstract

從中國大陸開放外資以來，外商投資者動機多為生產因素比較優勢的應用、執行上下游垂直整合的生產及進行掌握中國大陸IC產業內部市場及行銷通路。而在外商投資策略方面，歐商及日商多採取合資經營策略，美國及韓國則多採取獨資經營策略。中國大陸已成為外商的投資地及生產基地。 當臺商大舉進入中國的半導體製造業時，則將是形成中國半導體產業質變的時機點，包括了技術和管理引進及生根，群聚效應將快速浮現，此時的半導體支援事業如光罩廠的設立，投資的時機亦將近成熟。 本研究在於臺商如何進入大陸光罩產業市場的探討，藉由在偵測產業環境上，先觀察全球光罩市場及技術，再看目前的大陸半導體產業環境，及光罩產業重要廠商在近年來的各項策略執行的動作，根據這些觀察，分析出關鍵變數(競爭變數)，再利用產業FMEA模式發掘出產業上真正重要的變化趨勢，並予以情境分析，量化其結果以為公司層面的策略活動的參考。 再者，量化牽涉到模型之建立，本研究建立了二個模型。 市場模型主要以各項公開資料為各半導體公司的產能基礎，經過專家對一些轉換參數的意見，建構出光罩產業的市場模型，根據此市場模型預測未來的需求結果，我們建立了公司層面的產能計劃，根據計劃再部署機臺需求及其折舊數字，經過專家對光罩價格，成本估算，依簡易的會計方法得到投資所需要的財務項目(Sales，Net Profit，ROA and EPS)的基本評估，至此，一個公司營運模型建立完成，用這個模型，去量化各種情境下發展出來的數據結果，最後根據情境分析來採取最適當的策略選擇。

When Mainland China takes economic open policy to attract worldwide capital investments, all investors have been especially interested in its manufacturing advantages and enormous home market. Broadly speaking, European and Japanese take the joint ventures with local enterprises; American and Korean take up their own investments alone. China becomes their overseas manufacturing centers only. The overall investment activities of Taiwan make the intrinsic changes in the semiconductor industry of China. Advanced technology transfer and mass production management experience are introduced and trained to the people in China. Industrial grouping effect comes true and takes shape rapidly in China. At the same time, the peripheral semiconductor industries, like mask manufacturing, are just the timing to build up their deployment in China. In this research, we try to help Taiwan Company to study the right strategy into China. First, we monitor and study the investment environment, like marketing and technology trend. Secondly, we analyze the recent strategy activities of mask industry around the world. We find out the root causes of any motives then put them into Business FMEA model. After that, we can obtain the significant changes and make some scenario cases to catch the suitable strategic activity on China. It will be very helpful for the enterprises to take the right action, what we called “strategic decision-making”. We setup the marketing and operation model in order to judge the FMEA priority. Marketing model is based on each activity of the mask industry. We interpret all competitors’ activities into their strategy by expert’s opinion. Based on marketing model, we design the production scheme to build up the operation model. In the thesis, it concludes the total cost, sales and required items to get the information of investment. Finally, with business FMEA model, we can transform “risk” into numerical result to help us to do the strategic decision-making.