宜蘭縣公路建設計畫優先順序之研究

Abstract

省、縣道公路新建及改善之優先順序訂定程序，首先係由公路總局依據「台灣地區公路建設規劃」並配合政府施政方針，擬訂相關計畫，依行政程序陳報交通部核轉行政院核定後，再逐年由公路總局先自行檢討該年度相關計畫所需經費並排定優先順序，陳報交通部審定後再報經行政院核定並成立年度預算，送立法院審查通過後執行。 在上述過程，於各層級政府不論擬定或審議，雖然均經過數次開會檢討才定案，不過其優先順序訂定並無一套有系統的評估方法，為了使國家資源得到最有效的應用，本研究先就階層分析法(AHP)、簡單加權評分法(SAW)、質量中介法(ELECTRE)、TOPSIS法、質化與量化多準則評估法、德爾菲法（Delphi method）及群落分析法（Cluster analysis）等方法做文獻回顧，另回顧國內外相關案例，再針對宜蘭地區93至97年之省、縣道公路新建及改善，依據宜蘭縣綜合發展計畫歸納分析宜蘭縣之產業、經濟、環境及交通的現況及未來發展特性，根據其特性研擬出評定宜蘭縣公路新建及改善之優先順序之目標、標的及準則之架構，採用AHP法及德菲法(Delphi Method)問卷調查的方式求得各評估準則之權重，再運用簡單加權法計算各計畫建設方案之總得分，並依據此得分高低，排定道路建設計畫方案之初步優先順序，最後採用群落分析法，以方案之得分分群，並根據分群結果試列出宜蘭縣93至97年道路新建及改善之分年經費建議，以作為宜蘭地區相關建設計畫經費核列及計畫審查之參考。

The process of ranking the priority of constructing the highway, including Provincial highway and County highway is conducted as follows. First, DGH (Directorate General of Highway) is following the principle of “Highway Construction Planning in Taiwan” to make relative plans that should match up the national policy. Second, those plans are verified by MOTC (Ministry Of Transportation and Communications) and are appraised and decided by EY (Executive Yuan). Third, DGH checks the annual budget of all plans and sets up its priority then transfer those plans to MOTC and EY to evaluate and get the permission. Finally, those plans is executed after the budget is approved by LY(Legislate Yuan) . Over process, no matter in making or appraising plans by any layer of government, no systematic assess method is applied, although the decision usually made through several times of meeting and discussion. For the best utilization of country resources, this study begins with reviewing the method of AHP、SAW、ELECTRE、TOPSIS、MCDM、Delphi and Cluster analysis etc., as well as relative cases of internal and overseas. And then analyze the present situation and future develop characters regarding property、economic、environment and traffic in I-Lan County, according to “Integrate Development Plan in I-Lan County ”. Then set up the structure of goal、object and criteria to assess the priority ranking of highway construction on Provincial highway and County highway in I-Lan County from the year 2004 to 2008. AHP and Delphi method is used in this study to weight criteria, and SAW is applied to calculate the total score of each construction case, and to determine the rank of priority. Finally, the author uses CA(cluster analysis) to cluster all cases and list annual budget in I-Lan County from the year 2004 to 2008, for the purpose to serve as a reference for government in making decisions.