標準單模光纖市場需求擴散預測模型之研究

Abstract

正確地對產品的市場需求進行預測，將有助企業面對產品生命週期縮短時之管理決策制定。隨著網際網路的盛行，擁有頻寬優勢的光纖通訊歷經30年的發展由長途纜線替代逐步往用戶接取端佈建替代。擴散模型最主要的功能就在於探究產品的生命週期，並預測需求量。本研究的主要目的在於以Bass擴散模型為基礎，加入價格、頻寬需求與頻寬使用費用因素作為影響產品銷售量及市場潛量的變數，提出一修訂模型，來驗證此模型在市場銷售方面具有更佳的預測能力；同時比對第一個應用光纖網路的美國地區及目前成長率最快的中國大陸地區之發展狀況。研究分析資料是1980年至2002年的標準單模光纖之年度需求量、銷售量及價格，資料來源為KMI 針對標準單模光纖市場之統計資料；最後並以研究模型預估中國大陸地區2003~2010年之標準單模光纖市場使用量。 研究結果發現，在模型建構方面，本研究所建構之研究模型，較Bass模型和Robinson與Lakhani模型對於標準單模光纖產業而言具有更佳的配適與預測能力。而在實證分析方面，則是標準單模光纖的市場潛量與頻寬需求間具有正向的相關性，而標準單模光纖的價格、頻寬使用費用，對擴散模仿也有正向相關性。本研究模型比對美國地區及中國大陸地區均有不錯之適配能立即預測能力。 在面對目前光纖通訊市場持續成長，價格卻持續向下修正，毛利率快速下滑的情況下；現有佔有率達6成以上之歐美大廠勢必逐步退出生產行列，生產線可預見將會往亞洲一帶轉移，台灣廠商應儘速評估自身的優勢作出因應。

Technology fast improvement has led to shortened life cycles for products in many industries. Thus, a correct sales forecast can help the managers make an appropriate strategic decision. Due to that Internet has been prevailing over the whole world and 30-years continued development, the optical fiber, which had the advantage of bandwidth transmission, approach the access network applications, instead of long-distance cable step by step. The main function of diffusion models is to explore the product life cycle, and to forecast demand. Hence, the primary purpose of this study is to propose a modified Bass model, adding in some variables, which could influence the sales figure and market potential such as: fiber prices, bandwidth demand and Internet access price to prove its better ability in sales forecast. Base on this kind of modified model, to find the compare the results of US and Mainland China, which has the strongest fiber demand at the moment than any other countries in the world. The annual data of standard single mode fiber, which is quoted from KMI’s research from 1980 to 2002, including requirement, sales volume and price, had been used. Finally, base on the proposed model, to forecast the demand for standard single mode fiber during next 7 years (from 2003 to 2010) in mainland China. The results indicate that the proposed model has better ability in prompt standard single mode fiber sales forecast than Bass model and Robinson and Lakhani model for US and mainland China market. Second, demonstration analysis shows that bandwidth demand has a positive impact on market potential of single mode fiber, as well as the sales forecast single mode fiber is positive influenced by fiber prices and Internet access price. In the optical communications industry nowadays, the market size is fast expending but the price and profit is decreasing oppositely. No doubt the major players will quit the manufactures and outsourcing from Asia area. Face this situation, the Taiwan’s manufactory need to make the appropriate strategic decision to catch the market immediately.