以德菲法預測台灣三五族半導體產業之發展趨勢

Abstract

隨著後PC時代的來臨，無線通訊成為最被看好的明星產業，而隨著無線通訊高頻化的趨勢，市場上對高頻產品的需求日益殷切。三五族半導體以其優越的高頻特性，成為備受矚目的半導體材料，市場上掀起了一股三五族半導體的投資熱潮。台灣由於有矽半導體成功的發展模式，三五族半導體業者紛紛群起效尤，以專業分工的方式，建立起全球最為完整的三五族半導體產業鏈。而未來三五族半導體產業的發展是否如預期般樂觀，一直為各界所關心。 本研究以德菲法（Delphi Method）進行台灣三五族半導體產業的發展趨勢預測，邀請產官學研各界的專家，以匿名問卷的方式，進行未來十年間三五族半導體市場面及技術面的預測，並探討與台灣產業發展相關的議題。 研究結果顯示，三五族半導體產業在未來十年的年複合成長率會為維持在16%至20%，而無線通訊仍會是最主要的應用領域，光纖通訊則是成長最快的領域。而台灣的三五族半導體產業，可能會在六年後發展成如同矽半導體產業一般，擁有完整的垂直分工體系與綿密的週邊支援產業，其中晶圓製造業最有機會成為領先全球的產業。技術方面，十年後主流的磊晶成長技術為MOCVD、微波元件結構為GaAs HBT，而砷化鎵仍是最主要的三五族半導體材料。

With the coming of the post-PC era, wireless communications has become the hottest star industry. And the demand for high frequency products is growing explosively. III-V semiconductor, with excellent high frequency property, is now widely accepted as the superior semiconductor material and has drawn lots of attention. With the great expectation, companies were set up one by one. Seeing that the successful model of vertical diaggregation of Taiwanese silicon industry, the entrepreneurs in the III-V industry was trying to copy the pattern of specialization and established the most complete III-V industry value chain in the world. It has always been an important issue, that if the development of the III-V industry will be smooth and successful. This research uses Delphi Method to forecast the development trend of the III-V industry in Taiwan. The forecasting is based on the experts’ opinions. We invite experts from different backgrounds to answer the questionnaires anonymously. The research scope includes the issues of both the market side and the technology side and the time frame is ten years from now. We also discuss the issues related to the industry developments in Taiwan. According to the experts’ forecast, the compound annual growth rate of the III-V industry in ten years will be between 16% and 20%. The most important application will be wireless communications as now, and the optical fiber communications will grow the fastest. We also anticipate that Taiwanese III-V industry will most likely become as successful as the silicon industry in six years and the foundry business will be the most successful segment in the value chain.