技術預測--以個人通訊服務為例

Abstract

技術未來的發展，具有高度的不確定性與風險，但是技術能否持續的發展 ，卻會影響到一個國家工業的盛衰；而一項技術的開發，除了需要金錢、 人力與時間外，尚需要承擔相當的風險；對於台灣的通訊業而言，如要其 自行建立一套完整的個人通訊服務技術，恐非易事，所以台灣的業界在發 展一個完整系統時大都需由國外引進新技術，或開發其中某些關鍵性技術 ，因此如何做好技術預測和研究方向，以提供業界做為發展技術時的參考 指標，就成為業界當前最重要的課題之一。本研究乃以個人通訊服務技術 之預測為個案，透過文獻探討與技術預測的方法及個人通訊服務技術的介 紹，分析其所涉及的技術與發展潛力，再以情境法(Scenarios）方式，聘 請專家及通訊業界人士對個人通訊服務的未來發展及技術提出專業的看法 ，再將所得到的資料和意見加以整理，同時對個人通訊服務技術的發展提 出最後結論與建議。 The development of technology has intensively uncertain and risk. Whether the technology continuous develop or not will affect the ups and downs of a nation's industry. The project of technology develop needs not only money, human resource but time , and the project leader should response its success. It's not easy for Taiwan's communication industry to establish the system of personal communications services. Now the Taiwan's firms use acquisition new technology or just develop several key part of technology during the period of developing. Therefore, the most important job for the firms is how to do the technology forecasting and research to be the industry index. This research is base on the technology forecasting of personal communications services. I am going to study the relative technology and its potential of development by disscussing the records and introducing the methods of technology forecasting and the development of personal communications services. Then, I invite the expects and the communication firms to share their professional opinion in the future development and technology of personal communications services by using the method of Delphi. Aftter analyzing the data and the opinion, I will submit my conclusion and suggestion in the development of personal communications technology.