標題: 前瞻技術預測之績效管理-以平衡計分卡及通訊產業為例
Performance Management of Technology Forecasting – using Balance Score Card in communication industry
作者: 林宗蔚
袁建中
理學院應用科技學程
關鍵字: 技術預測;技術前瞻;績效管理;組織績效;平衡計分卡;Performance management;Technology forecasting;Communication Industry;Balance score card
公開日期: 2010
摘要: 自從現代高科技產業邁入技術密集型態後,產業對於前瞻技術的發展及前景預測相對以往是越來越重視了。企業主們發現,一個新興技術的興起,代表的經常是一個新產業鏈的崛起,以及一個舊產業鏈的沒落。我們會發現這個產業的更迭並不是僅止於單一公司的興亡,同時更容易會是包含了整個上下游供應鏈的興衰。例如光碟產業的興起,短短五到十年間就將原有的錄影帶系統替換掉;影響範圍所及包含影音內容提供業者、影帶供應商及影視設備商。又如液晶電視的興起;影響所及包含傳統電視製造商、電視品牌業者及節目內容供應商。由此可知今日的成功不代表明日的必然存續,企業主為此無不傷透腦筋,竭盡腦力希望能早一步掌握前瞻技術的發展動態,也因此技術預測的方法也應景而生。 然而技術預測本質上就是在預測未來,做的是上帝的事,沒有人有把握百分之百能掌握市場的發展。雖然掌握市場動態是非常重要的事,卻在因為擁有不確定性的狀況下,企業主經常會因此忽略了其重要性。歸根究底,企業主的忽視,還是因為技術的預測,以現今的方法,雖也發展出可量化的推測法,卻也沒有辦法比較出推測結果的準確度。相對於工廠產業、業務銷售或工程開發來說,技術預測相對的對企業主來說感受不到所謂的績效。沒有明確的績效指標來評估表現,久而久之變容易忽視了重要性。因此本研究希望在技術預測的發展上嘗試架構績效評估系統,以增加其被量化的可能性。本研究先以文獻整理法發展可能的評估方式,最後以企業主訪談方式,來了解本研究對企業評估技術預測部門的績效是否有幫助,並藉此提供未來評估方法發展的方向。
Living in such a period of fast change, quick migration of the technologies, enterprise is no longer to guarantee its survival in the industry since one new technology booming may just ring a funeral bell of an old industry. CEOs are all worried that they do not catch the trend of those new technologies and, suddenly, their companies face to a harsh environment. In the case, technology forecasting and industry analysis become into a super star to save people from the chaos of plenty of new technologies. However, due to the difficulty of measure the performance of technology forecast, people could not really take this serious and long. In this research, I would like to find out if we have a better way to calculate the performance of technology forecasting and also want to define some key factors which could affect people of implementing industry analysis and technology forecasting. Here, I will compare the objective management and balance score card management to see how they are different from forecasting things.
URI: http://140.113.39.130/cdrfb3/record/nctu/#GT079873620
http://hdl.handle.net/11536/48804
顯示於類別:畢業論文