電動汽車產業發展模式研究—以中國大陸市場為例

Abstract

面對全球石油能源及環境議題日益受到關注，節能減碳已是世界各國政策推動的重要趨勢，由於全球運輸產業是第二大的二氧化碳排放來源，且車輛的能源消耗為運輸領域中的最大區塊，因而造就世界各國將車輛能源消耗與二氧化碳排放量列為積極管控的焦點，也直接促成電動汽車的發展。 目前電動汽車的發展仍舊受限於電池等若干技術問題尚待突破，另外充電設備的普及化、充電服務模式的建立與政府政策推行等因素，都是推動電動汽車發展的重要驅力。 本研究將運用技術預測方法中的情境分析法，從需求、技術、政策、產業等四種影響電動汽車產業發展的構面，試圖建構2020年電動汽車產業在中國大陸市場的可能情境，期望透過本項研究之成果，作為未來技術端、產業端與政策端發展策略的運用參考。

The issues of petroleum energy and environmental protection are concerned increasingly by people. Therefore saving energy and reducing carbon dioxide have become the worldwide important trends. As a result of the transportation industry in the whole world is the second largest source of carbon dioxide emission, the energy consumption of vehicles is the largest district in the field of transportation. Thus these reasons not only let the energy consumption and carbon dioxide emission from vehicles be regarded as the focus which must be controlled actively, but also directly contribute to the development of electric vehicles. The development of electric vehicles today is still limited to some factors, such as batteries and other technical issues, remaining to be a breakthrough. The popularization of charging devices, the establishment of charging service models, and the implementation of government policies are important driving force for promoting the development of electric vehicles. In this study, we adopt the scenarios analysis of technology forecasting methods and consider the four aspects of the electric vehicle industry development, which are demand, technology, policy, and industry, to construct possible scenarios of the electric vehicles industry for the market in China in 2020. The results of this study will be profitable reference for developing forward strategies on the side of technology, industry, and policy.