量化風險分析應用於汐止東方科學園區建築防火之研究

Abstract

台北縣汐止鎮東方科學園區一場超高層建築大火持續燃燒四十 三小時，燒出超高層建築之防災避難及使用管理上甚多問題及隱 憂，自此次慘重損失中，吸取教訓檢討改善有其必要性。 本論文以東方科學園區火災為案例，收集基本資料、現場訪視 及災因調查報告，由國內外法規及文獻探討比較後評估火災危險建 立量化風險分析模式，利用電腦軟體CFAST 輸入火場發生情境與後 果模擬分析各種參數，交互比較風險降低替代方案與成本效益分 析，以選擇最佳化防火安全設計及措施。 東方科學園區消防安全工程設計不應只是依較傳統「規格法 規」對防護手段的要求一成不變，而是要以達到特定安全水準之消 防安全為依歸，應用成熟的工程技術為手段，以火場成長危害之各 項模式為評估方法，以燃燒行為和燃燒生成物之影響情形為考量重 點，用定量方法評估各種不同設計，期能求得可達到最低損失「性 能法規」代替，才能保障建築大樓人員生命及財產之真正安全。

Application of Quantified Risk Assessment for Fire Safety of Buildings in Hsichih Eastern Science Park Student: Chih-Chang Tang Advisor: Dr. Chung-Sung Chen, Dr. Chih- Cheng Chao Institute of Industrial Safety and Risk Management National Chiao Tung University Abstract A big fire of High-Rise Buildings had been burning for 43 hours in Hsichih Eastern Science Park. The fire reveals many problems in High- Rise Buildings, such as their management, disaster prevention and escape. It’s necessary for people in Taiwan to learn something from this lesson. The thesis employed the fire case of High-Rise Buildings in Hsichih Eastern Science Park, collecting its basic data, scene interviews, and hazardous cause’s investigation reports. Next, by way of reviewing related literature, and comparing the domestic regulations and codes with overseas ones concerning this subject, the study evaluated fire hazards, and finally set up quantitative models of risk assessment. Moreover, with the aid of the software CFAST, the study input scenarios and various parameters of consequence-simulation analysis, and compared lower risk substitute schemes along with cost-benefit analysis in order to optimize designs and projects for fireproofing. The conclusion of this study is: Design of the safe fire-proof engineering in Hsichih Eastern Science Park should not only meet conventional “prescription-based codes,” but, on the contrary, also aim at certain specific safety standards of fire fighting, apply advanced engineering techniques, refer to various models of assessment for firegrowth hazards, consider mainly the effects and consequences of combustive behavior and combustion, and employ quantitative methods to evaluate various designs, in search of the lowest-loss “performancebased codes” to substitute for conventional codes. In this way, it should indeed guarantee the safety of lives and properties in the high-rise buildings.