兩岸航線客運市場競合分析

Abstract

本論文應用Lotlka-Volterra動態系統模型探討台灣航空雙雄兩岸航線競合分析 。海峽兩岸因政治因素歷經數十年的阻隔，在九0年代開放之後，基於「雙向直航、互惠互利」的雙贏原則，兩岸民眾與商務人士，莫不期望兩岸政府能儘速實現通郵通航及通商的「三通」政策。兩岸通航關係著兩岸關係的正常化進程，更直接的影響是運輸時效與運輸成本的節省，對於兩岸經濟的競爭力與未來發展影響深遠，故研究台灣航空雙雄-中華航空與長榮航空-赴兩岸航運刻不容緩。本論文將研究重點擺在航空客運市場，並應用BASS擴散理論及生物生態學上Lotlka-Volterra動態系統模型探討中華航空集團(包括華信航空) 與長榮航空集團(包括立榮航空)的兩岸航線載客人數的關聯性，對這台灣地區兩大航空公司的兩岸航線客運市場的競合關係進行預測分析。並比較兩大航空集團的優勢與劣勢，以期發展出最佳的經營策略。研究結果顯示，兩岸開放後，兩大航空集團處於競爭的關係但隨著航點、航線逐漸增加。華航集團在載客數及航線上的優勢，逐漸浮現總載客人數，遠優於長榮航空集團，但兩航空集團，受惠於航點的增加，在載客人數上呈現穩定的成長。由BASS擴散理論推得目前兩岸航線處於供不應求的狀況，但由Lotlka-Volterra 模型預測的結果，顯示兩航空公司並無明顯的競合關係。

ABSTRACT This paper will focus on the market of air transportation, applying the Bass diffusion theory and the Lotlka-Volterra model to analyze the competition and cooperation between two Taiwan airlines giants in the market of cross-strait air transportation, China Airlines Group (including Mandarin Airlines) and EVA Airways Group (including UNI Air), and to compare the their respective advantages and the disadvantages. Due to political factors, the economy and trade of China and Taiwan were separated for decades. However, based on the win-win principle of allowing direct cross-strait flights, people from both sides and business travelers had been expecting the two governments to implement the “three-links” policy since the reformation in the 1990s – allowing direct postal services and direct flights and opening up cross-strait economy and trade. The data quoted are the total number of passengers of cross-strait flights of the two airline groups. The results showed that during the beginning of opening up economy and trade across the Taiwan Strait, the competition between the two groups had increased steadily along with the increase in flight destinations and routes. However, the advantages of China Airlines Group – greater passenger capacity and more varied routes, have accounted for a higher total number of passengers than the Eva Airways Group. Nonetheless, benefiting from the increase in flight destinations, the number of passengers of the two airlines groups have both increased gradually.