臺灣公共運具選擇影響因素之分析

Abstract

隨著國民所得上升與人口都市化，促使私人運具持有率持續攀升，面對人口都市化及機動車輛普及化所衍生之都市交通問題，世界各國莫不以運輸政策為手段，致力於都市交通問題之改善。同樣地，我國隨著經濟快速成長，人口都市化以及每人平均國民所得亦隨之大幅攀升，也因此使用私人運具與持有比率隨之提高。促使各地方政府不斷地發展公共運輸，以減少私人運具的使用，然而公共運輸之發展需要先了解地方民眾運輸需求，以及根據現有運輸選項中，進一步了解公共運輸使用的重要因素，以得知有利提升公共運輸使用重要方向與方法。 因此本研究只在探討臺灣地區公共運輸城際運具影響之因素，並據以提出能有效提升公共運輸使用率之方式。主要研究對象為臺灣地區348個鄉鎮市區，分別針對短程旅次、長程旅次建立城際運具選擇模式，並採用總體羅吉特模式進行分析。將臺灣地區鄉鎮市區之現有能取得資料，包括共生變數、社會經濟變數、公共運輸變數、私人運具變數，進行統計分析與處理。最後將模式所獲得之解釋變數作彈性分析，提出公共運輸使用率之影響因素，並給予相關管理策略。 根據模式校估結果，短程模式中旅運者於較願意選擇機車為使用運具，而較無意願使用公共運輸（軌道運輸《捷運、臺鐵》、公路公共運輸《市區公車》、準大眾運輸《計程車、免費接駁公車、交通車》）。長程模式中旅運者於較願意選擇使用汽車作為城際運具，而較無意願使用公共運輸（軌道運輸《高鐵、臺鐵》、公路公共運輸《公路與國道客運》）。藉由管理策略分析得知，旅行成本與旅行時間實為重要之影響因素，若增加私人運具之旅行成本，確實降低私人運具之使用率；另外，公共運輸之旅行時間減少時也可幫助公共運輸使用率之提升。基於上述說明，以提出相關研究之建議。

The owner vehicles are increasing every year, it depends on the raised of income and urbanization improvement. Thus, the government has made some transport policies to solve the traffic problems because of reasons as explain earlier. Similarly, economic development, the number of population, income promotion and the number of cars and motorcycles are growing rapidly; consequently, the government has to develop the public transportation systems to reduce the owner vehicles in the network. The purpose of this research is calculated the variables to impact the intercity public vehicles choices in Taiwan. It provides the suggestions to increase the public transportation used. This research focuses on the 348 townships in Taiwan and the model is divided by the distances such as, short trip (20-50km), long trip (over 50 km). The data come from MOTC survey, and also it uses the Aggregate Logit model to estimate one set of parameters associated with explanatory variables such as generic variables, social-economic variables, private variables and public transportation variables. Additionally, it uses elastic analysis to receive the management strategy of transportation. As the results, travelers prefer to choose motor rather than public transportation (rail transportation, ground transportation, paratransit) for the short trips within the intercity network. Also in the long trip, travelers prefer to choose car rather than public transportation (rail transportation, ground transportation). The management strategies, both travel costs and travel times are important variables for impact to mode choice of intercity travelers. If travel cost of owner vehicles are increased, the number of owner vehicle users will decrease. In addition, if travel times of public transportation are decreased, the number of public transportation users will increase.