太陽能電廠證券化初探與獲利因子分析

Abstract

太陽光電為近期的新興產業之一，各國政府相繼推出政策刺激太陽能產業發展，其中發展太陽能發電廠更是各國推展的重點之一。由於能源價格的持續上漲與波動，太陽能發電廠逐漸受到各國青睞，同時華爾街也開始對太陽能電廠的證券化開始研究，針對太陽能電廠發展資金瓶頸問題進行突破，將可協助太陽能電廠大幅降低成本與增加流動性，相信會為太陽能產業開啟新的一頁。 本研究欲探討哪些太陽能發電廠的特質會對於電廠的內部報酬率產生影響。本研究利用聯合國的CDM專案資料庫，選擇中國55座太陽能發電廠作為樣本進行研究。使用逐步迴歸模型分析法，得出共六項影響太陽能電廠內部報酬率的因素，其中正相關因子為容量因子(發電時數)、收購電價、長期利率、折舊期間，而負相關因子為負債比率與還款期間。

The Solar Photovoltaic industry is an emerging industry recently. Many governments have developed Solar Photovoltaic incentive policies to stimulate this industry. Due to rising and fluctuant energy prices, solar power plants are favored in many countries. In addition, Wall’s financial institutions have started the securitization of solar power plants, it will help them not only to reduce its construction cost, but also enhance its liquidity. This research uses the CDM Projects Database of United Nations to survey 55 solar power plants in China. The research utilities the stepwise regression analysis method to explore profitable factors of the solar power plant. The positive correlation factors include the capacity factor, tariff with VAT, long-term interest rate, depreciation period. The negative correlation factors are debt ratio and repay period.