灰色理論於LED球泡燈售價預測之應用

Abstract

本研究目的要用灰色預測模型解釋並預測歐洲、美國、日本、韓國與中國大陸LED (Light Emitter Diode, LED)球泡燈售價趨勢，隨著全球節能意識日漸高漲，LED技術應用在照明領域的滲透率也逐步提昇,，然而目前LED照明的銷售價格仍遠高於傳統的照明產品，特別是在全球佔有很大使用比率的球泡燈，為一般消費者最為容易接觸到的光源種類，因採購的意願受到高價格限制，所以了解未來該類照明產品的價格趨勢，有助各大照明品牌業者判斷LED照明市場滲透度及擬定銷售計劃的關鍵。 本研究以GM(1,1)灰色系統理論，藉由搜集自不同區域超過一年度的球泡燈市場售價資訊，得知灰色系統理論在各個區域的預測均有不錯的結果，其中美國60瓦的LED求燈泡預測最為精準，歐洲與美國兩個地區在高功率的產品類別的預測精準度較日本、韓國為佳，研究結果隱含日本與韓國是LED球泡燈的生產國，球泡燈價格亦隨生產數量與技術成熟度而有所波動，相反地，歐洲與美國是LED球泡燈的主要需求國與進口國，球泡燈價格穩定，故模型預測較為精準。

The penastration of Light Emitter Diode (LED) lighting is getting bigger along with the trend of energy saving in worldwide. However, the demand of consumers to adop LED lighting product is limited because of consumers have to cost high to transfer traditional laminations into LED lighting. The price of LED lighting product is still higher than traditional laminations, considering the LED bulb is the most popular light source, it’s important to forecast the price trend of LED bulbs, this work applies the Grey theory to predict the price of LED bulbs. In this study, grey forecasting models GM(1,1) is applied to predict the price trend of LED bulb in Europe, the United States, Japan, Korea, and China. This work forcasts the two types of LED bulbs, 40W and 60W LED bulbs. The result shows that the price forecast of the LED bulbs is most accuarate in U.S and least accurate in Korea. It implies that the Grey model perfoms better in predicting the price of LED bulbs in U.S and Europe, especially for 60W LED bulbs.