國際快遞物流網路延遲傳播與運具派遣決策支援模式之建構

Abstract

在複合運輸網路中時常發生常態型的擾動(例如：交通壅塞、運具故障及交通事故等因素)，這些擾動對於不同的運具會產生不同的影響。國際快遞業者較注重運輸的服務品質，因此當擾動發生時國際快遞業者會願意以高成本的手段減緩擾動所產生的影響。故當國際快遞網路發生擾動事件後，本研究擬透過運具派遣決策作為擾動管理的手段，並考量延遲傳播的概念以最小化運輸系統網路成本。由於擾動事件的因素並非各自獨立，本研究運用simulation-based optimization的概念，使用Arena系統模擬軟體模擬擾動事件與延遲時間，探討當擾動發生時運具派遣的決策模式，給予國際快遞業者在面對擾動發生後運具派遣決策的參考依據。 本研究擬探討下列研究課題：(1)如何定義複合運輸網路及運輸成本?(2所考量的擾動原因為何與如何設定擾動所造成的延遲時間?(3)延遲傳播的定義與衡量方法?根據上述課題，發展擾動事件發生後即時運具派遣決策模式。 最後將以國際快遞業者在亞洲區之服務網路作為實例分析的對象，模式中輸入的參數數值皆由國際快遞業者提供(因為商業機密無法公布公司名稱)，並根據不同的路網及影響下游轉運站的範圍設計各種不同的情境，分析當擾動發生後，根據延遲的時間、延遲的貨運量、運具等待成本、運具不等待成本及延遲貨物的存貨成本，以最小化運輸系統網路成本為目標，作出運具派遣的決策模式。

Routine disruptions occurred in the intermodal logistics networks very often and can’t be avoided. International express companies have to afford addition operating cost for mitigating the impact due to those disruptions. In this thesis, which developed a model by using the Arena simulation software to simulate the delay time due to those disruptions in reality. This model regarded logistics system minimized cost as model objective, and added the concept of delay propagations into it. This model can provide modes assignment decision to international express companies when disruptions occur. In this research, there are some topics has been studied：(1)How to define the intermodal logistics network? And the transportation cost? (2)What’s type of disruptions have been concerned in this research? How to determine the delay time due to the disruptions? (3)How to calculate the impact of delay propagation? Based on those topics, the modes assignment decision model can be developed. In the end, it analyzed Taiwan international logistics network. Those cases had been designed differently based on the different routes and the number of downstream terminals which affected by upstream delay. (The input data is given by the international express company, due to the commercial confidentiality I can’t announce the company title.) According to delay time, delayed volume of cargo, mode waiting time cost, substitute transport cost and inventory cost, the model can make modes assignment decision.