結合對應分析與資料採礦於智慧型手錶的購買預測與市場區隔

Abstract

近年來智慧型產品不斷推陳出新，穿戴式裝置逐漸嶄露頭角，自2013年起，多家廠商紛紛推出智慧型手錶產品，然而部份產品的銷售量卻不如預期。本研究推測其根本原因是智慧型手錶處於產品發展生命週期的導入期，市場需求尚未明朗，因此本研究致力於探討智慧型手錶的市場需求。以資料採礦技術找出潛在消費者的生活背景以及吸引消費者購買的關鍵屬性，並針對不同的目標市場提出屬性組合推薦。 本研究以粗糙集理論探討民眾的生活背景、偏好與購買決策之間的關係。發現智慧型手錶的潛在顧客平均一天內使用智慧型產品的時間為2~4小時，且擁有智慧型手機，未來開發廠商能針對這類型的顧客開發符合顧客期待的產品；行銷銷售商也能以這類型的顧客做為推銷對象，以提升銷售的效率。潛在顧客普遍偏好電子紙顯示、GPS接收器、聲控、防水和觸控等五個屬性，本研究建議開發廠商將這五個屬性視為智慧型手錶的核心功能，當智慧型手錶具備這些功能時，能吸引消費者購買。 本研究更進一步以關聯規則和對應分析探討不同市場下，消費者的屬性偏好與認知。根據研究結果推論，本研究建議以計步器、心率量測和溫度計做為運動型市場的主要功能，並在成本與技術許可下搭配數位羅盤功能；錄音做為商務型市場的主要功能，並搭配身分辨識、多媒體撥放器和數位羅盤功能；而安全監控作為醫療照護型市場的主要功能，並搭配心率量測、溫度計、壓力計、身份辨識和數位羅盤功能。在這樣的屬性組合下，開發商與行銷銷售商可針對不同的目標市場進行開發與推銷。

Recently, new kinds of smart devices are invented and sold to the market rapidly, and we witness a rise of wearable devices. Since the release of smart watches by companies in 2013, we found that the sales of most products are below expected. We thought that the fundamental reason is that smart watches are still in the introduction stage of its product life cycle, and the market demand is still ambiguous. In order to find the demand of smart watches, this study use data mining techniques to find the potential consumers’ background and the key attributes which cause them to purchase. And this study also recommends attribute portfolio for different segment of market. This study conducts rough set theory to investigate the relation of consumer lifestyle, preference and purchase decision. We found out that, in average, the potential customers use their smart devices for 2~4hours and most of them have smart phones. In the future, producers can develop new products focus on this type of customers. And we also found out that our potential customers prefer electronic paper display, GPS receiver, waterproof, speech recognition and touch panel. This study suggest industry firms to take these five attributes as the core functions and these are the most attractive functions to induce customer purchase. Furthermore, this study conduct association rules and correspondence analysis to discuss customers’ attributes preference and attributes perception. According to our research, first, we suggest to use pedometer, chest strap and thermometer to be the primary function for sport market. And under the permission of cost and technology, firm can add digital compass function. Second, companies can use audio recording and as their primary function of business market, and other recommended functions are identity recognition, Supporting MP3 and digital compass function. Third, the primary function of healthcare market is gravity sensor, and other functions such as chest strap, thermometer, barometer, identity recognition and digital compass are also recommended. Under these attribute portfolio, developers and sellers can set their own plans due to their target market.