探討失業率、物價及勞動生產力如何影響台灣的薪資水準

Abstract

薪資停滯問題已對台灣社會造成重大的影響，並引起廣泛的研究與注意。根據主計處資料顯示，近15年之台灣名目薪資成長率大幅下滑，甚至負成長；而實質薪資之負成長現象更為嚴重。本文探討研究薪資趨勢如何改變以及總體經濟面之薪資決定因素如何影響台灣勞動薪資。 本文將以敘述統計以及Blanchard & Katz的薪資模型來分析失業率、物價水準以及勞動生產力如何影響薪資。分析之資料範圍為由1981年至2013年。 實證結果顯示台灣薪資與失業率為反向關係；薪資與勞動生產力為正向關係；而在本研究中，薪資與當期物價無明顯關係，但與前一期物價有反向關係。同時我們亦發現所有薪資決定因素在西元2000年後皆有明顯改變，且此變動亦影響薪資。

It has been known that wage stagnation has become a serious problem in Taiwan. The growth rate of the nominal average wage in Taiwan has been decreasing or even becoming negative for recent 15 years. We want to analyze how the wage trend changed and how several macroeconomic wage determinants affect wages in Taiwan labor market. In this research, we apply descriptive statistics and Blanchard & Katz’s wage model to analyze how unemployment rate, price level, and labor productivity affect wages in Taiwan. The secondary data range from year 1981 to 2013. The empirical result shows that the relationship between wages and unemployment rate is negative; the relationship between wages and labor productivity is positive; in this research, there is no significant relationship between wages and price level in Taiwan, but a negative relationship with the lagged price. We also find that all wage determinants have structural changes after year 2000, and this change may affect wage growth.