航空公司租/購航機之評估決策模式

Abstract

本論文乃因近年來亞洲航空市場之蓬勃發展，為因應市場需求的增加而就航空公司觀點探討以現有機隊之基礎所建構之飛機租購決策模式。不同於大規模的機隊規劃，本研究以增加租/購一架航機作為主要考量。因此需求增加的規模、潛在航線的特性、目前運行之飛機、目標航空公司之財務可行性應為考量重點。

為此，本研究使用層次分析法(Analytic Hierarchy Process, AHP) 為基礎發展出評估架構，包括五項構面：財務可行性、航線相容性、機型相容性、航機評價及環保評價，每項構面都有2到4個相關的準則。為獲得權重，本研究邀請10位具有豐富飛機採購、管理和維護的專家參與問卷訪談。結果顯示，前三名的準則累計權重超過了0.7，即財務可行性、航線相容性及機型相容性，說明了這些準則的重要性和決定性。

為驗證所提架構的適用性，本研究選擇一家國籍航空公司作為案例分析。依據案例公司之營運特性，本研究研擬八個替選方案作為評估比較，包括四個候選機型：空中巴士A320、空中巴士A330、波音737及波音787，以及兩種購入方式：租賃及購買。此外，本研究亦比較一階段的決策(同時考量所有準則)及兩階段決策(先使用不納入財務可行性的其他四項準則進行機型評選，再以財務可行性準則決定所選擇機型應以租賃或購買方式採購)。結果顯示，兩種決策流程的評選結果都一致以購買空中巴士A320為是案例航空公司的最佳選擇

Due to Asia’s booming aviation market, this study aims to develop a decision making model for leasing or purchasing an aircraft from airline’s point of view to meet the increased market demand based on the current operating aircraft fleet. Different from a large-scale aircraft fleet planning, this study only considers the acquisition of an additional aircraft. Therefore, the size of increased demand, the characteristics of the potential air routes to fly with, the current operating aircrafts, and the financial feasibility of the target airline company should be considered.

To do so, this study uses the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method to develop the analytical framework. A total of five criteria are proposed: Financial feasibility, Demand Compatibility, Aircraft Compatibility, Performance Reputation, Environmental Protection Reputation, each of which has two to four associated sub-criteria. To obtain the weights, a total of 10 experts with rich experiences in aircraft acquisition, management and maintenance are interviewed. Results show that the summated weights of the first three criteria, i.e. Financial feasibility, Demand Compatibility, Aircraft Compatibility, exceed 0.7, explaining the importance and dominance of these criteria.

To demonstrate the applicability of the proposed AHP model, a case study on an airline is conducted. A total of eight alternatives are compared, including four candidate aircraft types: Airbus 320, Airbus 330, Boeing 737, and Boeing 787 and two acquisition methods, lease or purchase. Additionally, one-stage decision (consider all criteria) and two stage decision processes (use of four criteria, except for Financial feasibility, to evaluate the type of aircraft and then use of Financial feasibility criteria to decide lease or purchase the chosen aircraft type). The evaluation results of two decision processes consistently show that to purchase the Airbus 320 is the best alternative for the target airline.