生態彈性對台灣減碳政策的影響-以STIRPAT模型

Abstract

全球暖化和氣候變遷的威脅是最近這幾年來全球最關注的議題之一。在京都議定書之規範下，簽署國家均面臨了溫室氣體減量之壓力，台灣政府訂立了「節能減碳」之總體政策願景，此外在國內也陸續推動了相關政策之討論，而目前國際間主要的減碳政策可分為屬於價格管制的「碳稅」制度及屬於數量管制的「碳交易」制度，因此，本研究欲探討「碳稅」和「碳交易」制度何者較適用於台灣的社會、經濟環境。本研究用EIA資料庫、台灣行政院能源局之統計資料及AREMOS資料庫中1982年到2010年間的資料來當作樣本進行研究，依變數為CO2排放，自變數為高級柴油價格指數、人口數、人均GDP及人均GDP之平方，使用普通最小平方法來估計STIRPAT模型中的生態彈性並分析台灣能源價格的改變對CO2排放的影響程度，在經過實證後發現，雖然能源價格和CO2排放量間的關係為負相關，但是生態的價格變動為無彈性，所以數量管制的碳交易制度比價格管制的碳稅制度更適合來當作台灣的減碳政策。

The challenges from the climate change and the global warming have become one of the most important issues to solve in the world. Under the Kyoto Protocol, countries which have signed the Kyoto Protocol have faced the pressure of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The two main policies for reducing carbon dioxide are “carbon tax” and “carbon trading”. This research explores which policy will be more suitable for the society and economic environment of Taiwan. This research uses EIA database, the statistical data from the Taiwan Bureau of Energy, Ministry of Economic Affairs, and the data from AREMOS database from 1982 to 2010. The independent variable is the emission of carbon dioxide, and the dependent variables are premium diesel oil price index, population, GDP per capita and the squared term of GDP per capita. The research method is based on the Ordinary Least Squares to estimate the ecological elasticity in the STIRPAT model by analyzing the influence of the change of energy price to the change of the emission of carbon dioxide. From the empirical result, it was discovered that though the energy price and the emission of carbon dioxide was negatively correlated, the ecological elasticity was inelastic. As a result, carbon trading seems a more suitable policy for Taiwan.