台北高雄城際公共運輸競爭模式分析

Abstract

本研究應用Lotka-Volterra模型在分析台北高雄城際公共運輸運具間的競爭關係上，將兩運具競爭的Lotka-Volterra模型拓展至多運具間的競爭分析，並應用此模型與所蒐集之資料進行客運量推估與均衡點分析。目前城際運輸分析主要的方法有：巢式多項羅吉特、多元回歸與時間序列等。巢式多項羅吉特模式受限於需使用問卷調查各種屬性才能進行分析預測，而多元回歸與時間序列並無法解釋各運具間的競爭關係。因此本研究運用Lotka-Volterra模型討論不同運具間的競爭分析，此模型只需蒐集各運具的運量資料即可找出各運具間的競爭關係與彼此間的影響程度。本研究以台灣高速鐵路營運後導致民航退出台北高雄城際公共運輸市場為例進行客運量推估與均衡點分析，並用此模型描繪出高鐵加入市場後各運具間的交互關係與民航退出台北高雄航線。

This study uses Lotka-Volterra model to analysis the modes of the public transport competition between Taipei city and Kaohsiung city. The model can estimate the transport volume of each transport mode and the equilibrium point analysis by history data. To estimate the volume of the public transport, previous studies usually use nested multinomial logit model or multi-regression and ARMA model. Nested multinomial logit model needs questionnaire to support the estimate of transport volume. In addition, Multi-regression and ARMA model cannot explain the competition and the interaction between different transport modes. However, Lotka-Volterra model can explain the competition and the interaction between different transport modes by transport volume only. This study uses Lotka-Volterra model to estimate the transport volume and the equilibrium point analysis; a case of the civil aviation in Taiwan being forced out the market since Taiwan High Speed Train joined the route between Taipei and Kaohsiung. The result shows the interactions and the competitions between different transport modes and explains the airline withdrawn.