台灣高速鐵路旅運者班次選擇行為之研究

Abstract

台灣高鐵於2007年加入營運之後，有效縮短旅行時間，在營運期間，為了要提升運量，因此推出許多優惠措施，旅客會選擇有優惠的班次搭乘，造成其他班次乘載率低。本研究探討影響高鐵旅班次選擇的因素，根據初步調查結果，本研究選定了票價、班表延誤時間、消費回饋、消費回饋的有效期限、起迄點接駁候車時間等影響變數，進行敘述性偏好問卷設計。 選定由高鐵台北站出發的旅客為研究對象，透過個體選擇模式的建立來探討旅客班次選擇的因素，構建描述高鐵旅客班次選擇的行為模式；並進行政策模擬分析。實證研究結果如下，價格，班表延誤以及提供消費回饋會影響旅客班次選擇，藉由價格變動以及提供消費回饋來吸引旅客；若提供消費回饋可吸引較多旅客搭乘。高鐵新增加三站之後，旅客班次選擇行為改變，對於直達車停靠站而言，改搭乘直達車的旅客會增加；而沒直達車停靠的車站，旅客會選擇前一班次或原班次搭乘。高鐵新增加三站之後，停站方式仍為直達車與非直達車兩種，直達車停站方式不變，若將非直達車分為每站皆停以及半直達車兩種形式，發現半直達車旅行時間變動較小，因此對原來旅客選擇的班次影響也較小。

In 2007, Taiwan High Speed Rail(THSR) joined to transportation market, it cut down the travel time effectively. In order to raise the volume, therefore THSR company introduced many measures to attract passenger during the operation period. Passenger will take the trains with discount, the other trains without discount having low volume. The purpose of this study will investigate the effects of passenger choice behavior. In the view of THSR passengers, the probably face some train choice scenarios from origin to destination, including price, departure time, trip purpose and so on. Past researchers discussed mode choice, this research considers train choice behavior, according to survey, we choice price, schedule delay time, reward, the expiration date of reward, and access mode waiting time from origin terminal to destination terminal or from destination terminal to origin terminal, and using stated preference to design questionnaire.

This research select the passenger from Taipei high speed rail station and use stated preference method to acquire the requested data. We also build discrete choice model to calibrate those train choice behaviors. The result of this research are shown as follow. Price, schedule delay time and reward will influence passenger. By changing the ticket price or provide reward can attract tourists, this study shows provide reward will attract more people. After THSR finish the others stations, for non-stop station, there will more passenger shift from non-direct Train to non-stop train. For non-direct station, tourist will select an earlier train or stay in original train. If the train stop mode can be divided into non-direct train and non-stop in the future. Non-stop train travel time will as before, non-direct train travel time will increase, if we provide a train between non-stop and non-direct, the smaller travel time change, the smaller passengers choice behavior change. Because the shorter travel time