中小尺寸面板的市場預測和經營策略

Abstract

公司長期的成功有賴對市場精確的評估和良好的策略，對市場精確的評估來自於正確的使用預測資訊;良好的策略必須要使競爭對手難以模仿，又可以為公司創造價值。本研究以中小尺寸面板為案例，探討市場預測和經營策略，整個論文以兩部份呈現，第一部份為市場預測的評估，使用量化的研究方法，探討影響預測準確度的因素；第二部份為經營策略，使用個案研究，也就是質性的研究方法，探討知識管理、垂直整合和產品策略的執行及其對公司績效的影響。 第一部份評估市場研究公司對中小尺寸面板的預測，首先針對預測準確度和科技開發階段之間的關係提出假說，然後利用TSR市場研究公司的資料，測試並評估假說，利用Kruskal-Wallis的排序和測試(rank sum test) 以及非參數簡單回歸兩種統計方法，結果顯示，對成熟市場□的成熟技術，市場研究公司的預測是可靠的，然而對新的技術，市場研究公司的預測不準，此外，預測的準確度通常不隨著時間而改善。 第二部份利用個案研究方法，探討使勝華科技成功的企業策略，歸納出勝華科技採用下列的藍海策略，提高顧客的價值：1. 利用知識管理，在銷售、科技、產品、服務、系統、管理、財務等建立ESADI CC (為顧客創造價值，競爭者很難模仿的核心能力)，2. 設備、零件、材料垂直整合，3. 提供優良產品。論文中探討這些策略的執行面和這些策略對績效的影響。

The long-term success of a corporation relies on accurate predictions of market demands and on good strategies. Accurate predictions of market demands come from using forecast information correctly. Good strategies have to be difficult for competitors to imitate and are capable of creating value for the company. This dissertation, using small and medium size display market as the case of study, encompasses two essays. Using quantitative methods, the first essay evaluates the accuracy of forecasts made by a market research firm and reveals factors which affect the accuracy of market forecasts. Using a qualitative research method, i.e., case study, the second essay examines business strategies that lead to the success of a company. Essay I evaluates small and medium size display market forecasts made by a market research firm. Hypotheses concerning the relationship between stages of technology development and the accuracy of market forecasts are first developed. The hypotheses are then tested and evaluated using the data issued by one market research company, Techno Systems Research (TSR). Kruskal-Wallis rank sum test and nonparametric simple regression are the statistical methods used. The results of the data analysis showed that the forecasts made by the market research company are dependable for mature technologies in mature markets, whereas for a new technology their forecasts are inaccurate. Furthermore, the accuracy of forecasts quite often does not improve over time. Essay II examines business strategies which lead to the success of Wintek. Case research method was employed. The management of Wintek mainly used the following blue ocean strategies to increase customer value: 1. using knowledge management to build ESADI CC (Enable company to Succeed And competitor Difficult to Imitate Core Competency) in sales, technology, product, service, system, management, finance, and asset, 2. vertical integration of equipments, components and materials, and 3.offering superior products. Implementation and the impacts of these strategies on firm performances are examined and discussed.