中國大陸經濟發展對亞洲航空站運量之分析與預測

Abstract

中國大陸於一九七九開始實行由鄧小平所推行的經濟改革，至此之後大陸的經濟呈現了倍數的成長，且從一九八０年代末期至一九九０年代中期可以說是大陸民航產業擴充最迅速的時期；到一九九八年底為止，其註冊有案的民用航空公司數已達四十二家，飛機總數計有一千零四架之多，成長相當快速。 由當今經濟發展的角度觀之，未來十年大陸的民航運輸增長率仍將是世界第一。由實際經濟面看來，這是由於大陸國民經濟的快速成長，為航空運輸注入了新的生機和活力，而航空運輸的發展又會間接促進社會相關產業的發展和經濟繁榮。再從理論上的角度視之，大陸疆域廣闊，相對上國民以飛機做為交通工具的比例應該遠比其他國家為高，加上大陸人口眾多，目前全世界平均每四人每年乘坐一次飛機，而大陸目前則是每三十人每年乘坐一次飛機，如果僅以世界的平均水準衡量，未來大陸民航市場的需求增長率最少就有七點五倍。 大陸在亞太地區已成為相當重要的經濟體，回顧目前針對中國大陸民航業運量的相關研究中，從大陸經濟發展角度來探討的文獻相當少，然而最近中國大陸航空事業的興起，已在亞洲地區有著許多新的變化，本研究嘗試從其經濟面來探討其對亞洲其他航空站所帶來的變化以及預測其未來五年內的運量成長狀況，以期能帶給我國航空站在未來全球佈局的規劃參考。

The economical implement reform caring out by Deng Xiaoping was started from 1979 in the Mainland China and the economy of China has been multiple grown from the end of 1982 to the mid of 1990, however, there are almost 42 civil aviation companies which registration and own 1004 airplanes growing fast. It is view of the hot economic development, the China civil air transportation will be number 1 in the world during the future ten years. On the economical way, due to air transportation in China was poured into the vitality and vigor. Theoretically, according to China big country, which has huge population, has more chance to take airplane is higher than other countries. The average shows every 4 persons take the airplanes one time in each year in the world; however there are 30 persons take the planes in each year at least. It would be needed 7.5 times growing rate in the future China civil aviation market. Now, China is a very important economic system in the Asia-Pacific area. We know there are quite less research about the China economic development in China civil aviation. The research China civil aviation is starting and change a lot talk about the transportation growth which bring the chance and predict in Asia during 5 years in order to making the reference on the world for Taiwan air station.