替代燃料車輛之評選與使用分析

Abstract

全球的石油價格居高不下，對於車輛產業來說，會直接衝擊消費者的使用成本負擔，多方面的發展替代性能源才有機會規避下一次的能源危機。另一方面空氣污染的控制也是目前全球注重的議題，包括蒙特婁議定書和京都議定書等，都是對於氣體管制的協定，在車輛產業也有越來越嚴格的氣體排放限制，各車廠為因應這樣的情勢將許多相關的替代燃料車型研究推向到市場。本研究是針對替代燃料車型在台灣的發展機會作一個討論，先就替代燃料車全球發展的軌跡做一個簡單的概述，回顧過去這個產業的發展狀況，對於目前在市面上七大類的替代燃料車種做一個整理，這七大類車種不一定都有量產化但是都有其發展的潛力。其後從這七種中選出有量產的小客車車型，以Fuzzy AHP層級分析法找出適於發展的替代燃料車種，此法是以問卷的方式取得評選項目之權重，再利用TOPSIS方法以車輛發展實際情況之績效值予以排序，如此找出適合本研究討論的車型便是混合式動力車。從此車型上利用文獻整理的方式與問卷調查找出消費者對此車型所著重的購車因子，在得到消費者所重視的因子後，探討在目前環境下混合式動力車和傳統的汽油引擎車在各因子中有什麼不同之處，並列出混合式動力車型的優勢、劣勢、機會與威脅，在最終給予廠商應發展的策略建議。

In an era of high oil prices, the emergence of substitute energy is very important. With China increasing their needs of oil, its prices will no longer drop. As of January 1, 2005, the Kyoto Protocol will enforce that all developed countries reduce their level of excess greenhouse gases to 95% of that in 1990’s. With this in effect, the car industry has logical reasons to develop and promote a new generation of cars in response to the increase in gas prices. Such models that already exist on the market include hybrids, pure electric cars, fuel cell cars, etc., however are not widely produced and marketed. Even with the amount of extensive resources being put into the research of such energy substituted automobiles, much problems are left to be improved. We first collect data including the level of technological development, its patent distribution, the lifestyle costs pertaining to different modeled automobiles, additional needs of market infrastructure, and the car prices of both gasoline and energy substituted vehicles and then make purchasing factors analusis as to how these energy substituted vehicles will break into the mainstream market with a substantial amount of market share. Energy substituted automobile are far and few in Taiwan even with the past use of the liquefied gas engine by a limited number of taxi drivers. With this information, additional technological forecasting will be done to see as to how these fuel-efficient vehicles will break into the mainstream market of Taiwan.