潛在停車需求推估模式之建立

Abstract

停車供需狀況係停車管理工作最基本之資訊，所有停車管理之策略，不論是增加供應或抑制需求都需以此資訊為依據，因此停車管理單位均會定期委託民間單位、顧問公司或學校進行停車位供應及停車數量之調查。調查之分區中，若停車需求小於停車供給，所調查到的數量為實際的停車需求；但若停車需求大於停車供給時，駕駛者可能會找尋其他的替代方案，例如：選擇到較遠的地方停車，或是不使用汽車而改用其他的交通工具，此時該分區之停車需求不等於實際調查到的停車數量，必須考量潛在停車需求的部份。 在推估潛在停車需求時，必須考量其未實現原因及停車需求類別兩個向度。在未實現原因之向度上係為因停車供應不足而造成停車不便，而停車需求類別之向度則包含因停車不便不買車及有車不開去之兩種情況。 本研究透過電訪調查與多元迴歸模式之應用，分析在各類旅次目的下之潛在停車需求模式。然而，臺北市之土地使用大多為混合型態，因此必須考量相同空間內時間之變化因素。再以需供比、搜尋時間、步行時間及停車費率等影響變數構建潛在停車需求模式。 最後以單變數非線性模式作為本研究之潛在停車需求推估模式，計算出停車總需求量後，再求得包含潛在停車需求後之需供比，透過需供比之服務等級變化情形，以反應目前臺北市實際停車狀況。

The parking demand and supply are the fundamental information for the parking management. All the strategies of the parking management, such as the increase of supply or the decrease of demand, rely on this information. Therefore, the governmental offices in charge of the parking management regularly find non-governmental agencies, advisory companies or schools to survey the supply of the parking spaces and the amount of the parking demand. In the surveyed area, if the parking demand is less than the parking supply, the amount is the real parking need; instead, if the parking demand is greater than the parking supply, the drivers would adopt substitute methods. For instance, they drive to a farther location to park, or use other tools of transportation. Under that circumstance, the parking demand does not equal the surveyed amount. Thus, the potential parking demand must be taken into consideration. When evaluating the potential parking demand, the causes of the flawed satisfaction and the categories of the parking demand must be included. The causes of the flawed satisfaction result from the insufficient parking supply that makes the parking inconvenience. The categories of the parking demand can be observed in two situations. One is that drivers do not purchase vehicles as a result of the parking inconvenience, and the other is that drivers would not like to drive their own vehicles. This research applies surveys of telephone calls and multiple regression model to analyze the potential parking demand model under various categories. Nevertheless, the uses of land in Taipei City are mostly combinations of several types. Thus, the variables of time in the same spaces should be taken into consideration. In addition, the ratio of supply and demand, searching time, walking time and the parking fee should be seen as the variables which all affect the establishment of the potential parking demand model. A non-linear model with single variable would be applied to measure the potential parking demand model as the conclusion. After the total parking demand is calculated, the ratio of the potential supply and demand including the potential parking demand would be obtained. According to the variations of the ratio of supply and demand of the service level, the research would be able to reflect the real parking situation in Taipei City.