零售商價格促銷策略對快速流通消費性商品之銷售及利潤的影響

Abstract

本論文為瞭解零售商對快速流動消費性商品所採行之價格促銷策略之背後所根據的原理，以找出不同的價格促銷策略下，哪些因素會影響利潤和銷售的變動，以及影響的效果為何，因而設計了品牌及包裝兩種價格促銷策略模式，並參考前人研究的理論基礎，將相關影響變數分為「產品特性因素」、「商店特性因素」及「消費者特性因素」三大類共九個變數來進行分析。

本研究的資料來源為Dominick's Database所收集，含有美國芝加哥地區85家商店、29個品類的商品掃瞄資料（Scanner Data），以及各商店之人文地理變數資料。為研究之目的與時間成本考量，本研究只選取其中之洗碗精品類來做分析，並篩選出85家商店、156週中有實施價格促銷的資料，將該品類所整理出之17個品牌及11種包裝兩種模式進行廻歸模型的研究；結果發現：在價格促銷下，該地區之商店流量、年齡、及教育程度對各品牌及各包裝的銷售及利潤均有顯著的正向影響，而促銷深度、促銷頻率、包裝或品牌數、及家戶所得對各品牌及各包裝之銷售及利潤有不一致的影響方向；大體而言，市場領導品牌宜採取較大幅度、頻率較低的價格促銷，而較暢銷的包裝可使用較深、較頻繁的價格促銷策略，而產品的深度（包裝種數）及寬度（包裝數）越多，並不一定能為銷售及利潤帶來正面的增加，在某些品牌或包裝區隔中反而有負面影響；另外，該區域之商店競爭數與家戶人口數對銷售及利潤的影響在本研究的兩種模式的研究結果中均較不顯著。

The purpose of this thesis is to study the principles of retailer’s price promotion strategies of Fast Moving Consumer Goods, and to find out what factors and how they affect FMCG’s sales and profits under different price promotion strategies. We designed two kinds of models－brand model and package model and put three kinds of factors－"Product characteristic factors" , "Store characteristic factors", and "Consumer characteristic factors" into those models for analyzing.

The data is collected by Dominick's Database, which contains scanner data of 85 stores, 29 categories and demographgic census in Chicago in the United States. Considering research’s aim and time cost, we only chose one category, Dish Detergent, to study. We also selected sanner data which was under price promotion in continuous 156 weeks of each 85 stores and sorted it into 17 brands and 11 packages for our regression models.

The research concluded several important results. First, we found “store volume”, “age”, and“education” of that area could affect both sales and profit of each brand and each package size positively. However, there is no identical result of the effect on each brand and package size’s sales and profit under the variables of “promotion deep”, “promotion frequency”, and “the veriety of the product (depth or width)”. Generally, the brands of market leaders should take deeper and less frequent price promotion strategies, and the package sizes sell very well can use both deeper and more frequent ones. Second, the matitude of the pruduct’s depth or width may not definitely bring positive increase to sales and profit. Finally, there is no siginaficant result of “the number of stores” and “family size” of the area.