新興市場通路強度的異質性研究: 中國標竿品牌的市場進入經驗之探討

Abstract

21世紀伊始，中國經濟成長快速，不但成為全球資訊、通信、暨消費性電子(3C)產業主要生產基地，中國龐大的內需市場，更引起跨國企業覬覦。隨著2001年末中國加入WTO，3C產業政策更形開放，加上近年來中國政府大力鼓吹「家電下鄉」補貼政策，使得3C企業如何深入中國佈局儼然是當前重要的研究議題。然而，中國幅員遼闊，文化複雜性及地域的差異性是廠商在拓展市場時面臨的問題，如何訂定通路強度策略更是各家廠商管理的難題。雖然許多文獻都提及各種影響通路強度的因素，但往往應用已開發市場之研究架構欲解釋中國此一新興市場的通路，則顯扞格不入。 本文研究資料涵蓋全中國200個城市，包括2002年四家3C標竿品牌:Nokia手機、HP雷射印表機、聯想電腦及海爾電視機之實際銷售量和中間商鋪點數資料，並連結全國城市各該品類銷售量數據，據以建構各地品牌發展指數（BDI）、品類發展指數（CDI）以及通路強度。作者利用機率模型解析3C品牌在中國通路市場佈局的實證經驗，並歸納通路強度的變異除來自可觀測的營銷變數外尚有不可觀測但深具管理意涵的異質性。 綜言之，本文研究貢獻整理如下: 1.利用卜瓦松有限混合模型(finite mixture model)和無限混合模型(infinite mixture model) 可將機率分配用來描述通路強度分布的異質性，並由此發展衡量通路市場集中程度的測度; 2.結合品牌發展指數（BDI）、品類發展指數（CDI），探討其與各城市通路強度的關聯性，結果發現和過去在歐美已開發國家的研究所認定運用品牌發展指數（BDI）、品類發展指數（CDI）的市場投資佈局重點順序不同; 3.最後以NBD迴歸分析的參數估計結果，表現3C標竿品牌在中國通路市場各地佈局變化的意涵，並評估其可能的應用價值。

As most mature markets enter the fray, emerging markets offer an opportunity for global brands to embrace. One of the critical decisions for these firms is how many intermediaries should be used in emerging markets. Although variables affecting market entry and distribution intensity have been proposed by the literature, market background and channel settings context could be drastically different. Factors that account for traditional channel distribution framework in developed markets appear too abrupt to transform go-to-market decision under heterogeneous channel environments for emerging markets. This study empirically examines four benchmark brands, Nokia, HP, Haier, and Lenovo in China’s 3Cs (computer, communication, and consumer electronics) distributors. Our research contributes to a few important fronts for this fast growing and highly competitive market. First, several concentration measures based on the mixture model of Poisson distribution reveal unobserved nature of heterogeneous distribution intensity rates among 200 cities in China. Second, interaction of CDI (category development index) and BDI (brand development index) in representing development of distribution channels is clarified. Third, linking CDI and BDI, the extended Gamma-Poisson mixture regression procedure modeling covariate effects on market growth, distribution capability, and benchmark brands power could be investigated. Results contribute to an applicable mechanism in generating channel intensities among different cities in China.