标题: | 小世界流行病学建模与公共卫生政策评估:利用社会分身点概念与区域资讯建构社会网路式流行病学电脑模拟 Small-World Epidemiological Modeling and Public Health Policy Assessment: Using the Social Mirror Identity Concept and Local Information for Network-based Epidemic Simulations |
作者: | 黄崇源 Chung-Yuan Huang 孙春在 Chuen-Tsai Sun 资讯科学与工程研究所 |
关键字: | 社会分身点;小世界网路模型;多代理人系统;细胞自动机;公共卫生政策;社会网路式流行病学电脑模拟;social mirror identity;small-world network model;multi-agent system;cellular automata;public health policy;network-based epidemic simulations |
公开日期: | 2005 |
摘要: | 本论文的主旨是探讨电脑建模与模拟在社会科学领域里的重要性、优缺点、运用方式、各项验证标准与评估程序。本论文拟以电脑建模与模拟为核心重点,详细介绍二项原创性的社科模拟研究。首先,第一项研究运用电脑建模与模拟来探讨流行性传染病的传播动态。此研究提出一套新颖的社会分身点概念来表示长距离移动、日常定点活动与多个活动点等重要的社会现象。并结合细胞自动机,建构一个能够描述日常生活接触与人际互动模式的小世界社会网络模拟模型。此研究模拟2003年初在台北、新加坡与多伦多(加拿大)三地的SARS疫情,模拟结果与实际的疫情资料具有高度的一致性,充分吻合当地疫情的发展趋势与特色。另外,此研究也证明该模拟模型非常适合探讨与流行性传染病有密切相关的公卫政策与防疫策略等。其次,本论文在第二项研究中,针对近来非常热门的小世界社会网络模拟模型,提出一个传播问题模型,并设计一个敏感度分析实验,来探讨数种区域差异对于模拟历程与结果的影响,并藉此检视各种区域差异的影响力与敏感度。最后,本论文期望透过上述二项研究来充分掌握电脑建模与模拟的特性与潜力,厘清它的操作程序与潜力,进而探讨它的意义、限制与应用范畴。 The purpose of this dissertation is to explore the importance, advantages, applications, validation standards, and evaluation procedures of computational modeling and simulation in the social sciences. I will present two original social simulation studies in detail. In the first, computational modeling and simulation are used to investigate the transmission dynamics of epidemics and to evaluate the effectiveness of various public health policies and epidemic prevention strategies. A novel social mirror identity concept is proposed to represent social phenomena such as individual long-distance movement, daily visits to fixed locations, and multiple activity locations. The cellular automata concept is also utilized to construct a small-world social network model that represents human interactions and daily contacts. To test these concepts, I simulated the 2003 SARS outbreaks that occurred in Taipei, Singapore, and Toronto. The simulation results, which were highly consistent with actual epidemic data, corresponded with local outbreak trends and features. The simulation model was shown to be suitable for investigating public health policies and epidemic prevention strategies. In the second study I investigated the influence of local information on social simulations based on a small world model. I introduced a cellular automata-based variation with added shortcuts as a test platform for simulating the spread of an epidemic disease, then examined the influences of various local information factors on the results. It is my hope that these efforts will help future researchers determine appropriate simulation parameters, clarify operational procedures, and access meaning from simulations. |
URI: | http://140.113.39.130/cdrfb3/record/nctu/#GT008923802 http://hdl.handle.net/11536/78201 |
显示于类别: | Thesis |
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