數位化時代音樂產業何去何從?－以生產力觀點進行全球音樂產業的實證

Abstract

本研究探討過去十年間音樂數位化過程所造成的產業環境改變，對於全球音樂產業經營績效的影響，並比較廠商實行各種不同競爭策略的執行成效。Färe等人(1992)以Cave等人(1982)提出Malmquist生產力指數概念，建立衡量跨時期效率之DEA模式。本研究以此基礎進一步將網路經濟下的外部性(Externality)因素影響加入模型考量，利用傳統CCR模型加入外生變數(indiscretionary variable)投入項，建構出修正過的Malmquist生產函數，並針對1997年至2005年間的音樂產業資料進行生產力變動分析，觀察並驗證各種競爭策略的執行對於音樂產業生產力變動的影響。

不同於以往短期事件日分析，本研究採用生產力變動觀點，檢驗音樂數位化過程對於全球音樂產業經營績效的長期影響。並透過資料包絡分析法(Data Envelopment Analysis)，以效率前緣的線性最佳生產效率邊界概念，對於音樂產業的效率進行探討。此外研究模型亦考量網路經濟下的外部性(Externality)因素影響(外部性因素包括：網路規模的成長、音樂盜版率的改善等外生環境變數)。利用傳統CCR模型加入外生變數(indiscretionary variable)投入項，建構出修正過的Malmquist生產函數，對於1997年至2005年間的音樂產業資料進行生產力變動分析，觀察並驗證各種競爭策略的執行對於音樂產業生產力變動的影響。最後本研究利用Tobit迴歸模式以及無母數Mann-Whitney檢定，來釐清影響音樂產業生產力變動的因素，並且對於影響音樂產業績效的外部性因素進行探討，以暸解音樂廠商執行競爭策略時，對於其營運績效的影響過程，並將各項研究結果彙整成一個有系統的過程論。

音樂廠商競爭策略包含：數位音樂科技的進步、廠商的法律訴訟策略以及創造新的商業販售模式等三個構面；此三個競爭策略構面，可更進一步分解成多個改變音樂產業結構的事件加以分析，包括：MP3音樂壓縮技術的發明、Napster推出點對點線上音樂分享系統、美國唱片產業協會(RIAA)對於Napster提出的侵權訴訟、蘋果電腦發展的iTunes合法線上音樂販售模式。事件日的選擇參考CNN、BBC等國際頗具權威的新聞中心資料；廠商選擇則是根據美國Standard & Poor推出的Compustat資料庫中的產業編碼，以及參考過往文獻的取樣標準，篩選出51家音樂產業公司進行研究。研究樣本公司歷史資料來源則是根據Compustat資料庫中所蒐集到的基本投入產出變數，投入項包括員工人數(以反映勞動投入)、固定資產(以反映資本的投入項)；產出項則以公司該年的銷貨收入作為代表；而外生變物資料主要根據國際通訊聯盟(International Telecommunication Union)所公佈的網路普及率資料，以及國際智慧財產權協會(International Intellectual Property Alliance)所公佈的各國的盜版率指標為變數參考依據。

本研究證實盜版問題確實是影響近年音樂產業績效表現的重要因素。盜版率會透過外部性對音樂產業的生產力產生直接影響。因此MP3與P2P軟體等數位音樂技術的發展是把雙面刃，一方面能促進音樂的傳播，然而在不成熟的智慧財產權保護機制下，同時是造成盜版問題日益嚴重的幫兇，進而透過效率前緣削弱音樂產業的生產力表現，對音樂產業造成重大衝擊。法律訴訟是短期內遏阻非法並增加既有廠商生產力的有效手段。然而長遠而言，在產業環境已經改變的條件下，仍需盡速尋求合理的利益分享機制。創造新的商業模式或許會因為利益的重新分配，對某些既有的產業造成衝擊，所以效果並不如法律訴訟立竿見影。然而當產業面臨整體環境結構轉變時，新的商業模式卻能藉由改善外部環境(例如降低盜版率，建構新的音樂傳播通路加速音樂的傳播等方式)，為產業帶來轉機。因此本研究建議音樂產業的管理者應盡速建立合法的傳播管道，創造屬於自己的藍海，才能有效的促進音樂產業發展。

This article adopts a point of view in productivity to investigate the impacts which are made by the new digital technologies, lawsuit strategies and the business model innovation on the performance of the global music industry, and makes a comparison between the effectiveness of different strategies which intrinsic music firms play during the environmental change. This thesis also tries to identify the key productivity affecting factors, and clarify the process that how these strategic events affect the music industry by the externalities. Thus 51 music related companies are chosen for representing the reactions of global music industry from 1997 to 2005; the Napster’s P2P file-sharing system, lawsuits against Napster, and the Apple’s iPod plus iTunes business model are concerned as the performance impact factors respectively in our research.

Färe et al. (1992) first introduced the DEA-based Malmquist productivity index to measure the productivity change over time. In this research, therefore, researcher applies the DEA methodology and Malmquist indices to calculate the productivity change of each music firm year by year. In order to reflect the influence of digital music and online content selling, the effects of network externalities and music piracy rate are concerned in our DEA models. Following Tobit regression model is employed to identify the key productivity affecting factors, and clarify the process that how these strategic events affect the music industry by the externalities. The researcher supposes that these events will not only pose influences directly on the performance of music industry, but also via the network externalities chang in an indirect way. In the last part of this article, influences of each event period, including the appearance of Napster’s P2P file-sharing system, RIAA filing lawsuits against the Napster for the copyright violation, and the opening of Apple’s iTunes Online Music Store, are tested by Tobit models. All of these events, except the appearance of MP3 and P2P software, are positive effects upon the productivity in our hypotheses. Furthermore in our hypothesis, strategy of creating a new business model is expected more powerful than filing a lawsuit against piracy, and the Mann-Whitney rank test is employed for testing.

Results show that music piracy rate is an important external factor for deteriorating the productivity of music industry, and the development of digital music technologies, MP3 and P2P, significantly reduce the productivity by increasing the piracy rate. Henceforth fighting against music piracy and creating a legal digital music transaction platform are becoming critical solutions for reversing the recession of music industry in productivity. On the contrary, filing a lawsuit against music piracy is confirmed an effective solution for reducing the music piracy rate and therefore improving the productivity significantly. Apple’s iTunes Online Music Store may bring about a redistribution of interests within music industry, threatening some intrinsic firms, and changing the composition of music industry, so the effectiveness of this business model fall short of our expectation. However since the external environment of music industry is change, creating a right business model is more reasonable for consumers than just filing lawsuits against piracy; therefore managers should still endeavor to create their own blue ocean by finding out a reasonable new music trading model in the era of digitalization.