行動加值服務之國際比較研究－以跨越鴻溝、路徑依存與網路效應理論分析

Abstract

本文討論的是行動加值服務在各國發展的差異。電信自由開放潮流下，新科技與新經營模式挑戰在位者，競爭使得ARPU（average rate per user）日益降低，行動服務業者必需依賴加值服務來支撐公司運作。 本文利用技術採用生命週期理論、路徑依存以及網路效應理論來分析日韓、中菲與台美的行動加值服務發展，利用加值營收佔行動服務總營收比例的數據，扣除簡訊服務佔總營收比例之後，發現六個國家可以在技術生命週期區分為三階段。日韓為技術生命週期的早期大眾階段，中菲為早期採用者階段，台美為創新者階段。 最後發現要成功推動行動加值服務，有兩大因素：一、支持加值服務的價值鏈是否發展完整，二、初期狀態，包含行動通信技術選擇與用戶初期使用行動加值服務狀態，如果兩個因素配合好，可以讓用戶在使用加值服務時獲得價值，用戶走進「使用行動加值服務」的路徑，許多用戶與協力廠商投入，就會產生網路效應的正循環，跨越了推動行動加值服務給市場大眾的鴻溝。

This paper discusses the mobile value-added services that develop in different countries. Under the trend of opening telecommunication markets, mobile service operators are challenged by new technology and new business models. Competition makes ARPU（average rate per user） decreases day by day. Mobile service operators need value-added services to support their corporate operation. This paper employs the technology adoption life cycle, path dependency, and network effects to analyze mobile value-added services of Japan, South Korea, China, Philippines, Taiwan and U.S.A. Using revenue of value-added service rate of total revenue minus SMS（short messaging services）revenue rate of total services revenue, we discover that six countries can be divided into three stages of technology life cycle. Japan and South Korea are in the early majority stage, China and Philippines are in the early adopter stage, and Taiwan and U.S.A are on the innovator stage. This paper discovers the two determinant factors of whether the mobile value-added services being successful：First, if the value chain of mobile value-added services works well. Second, initial condition includes the kind of technology being chosen at the early stage and initial experience of users using mobile value-added services. If the two factors can both work well, users can get value from using mobile value-added services. Users will go to the path of using mobile value-added services. Many users and relative corporate participate in network of the mobile value-added services. Then, the positive feedback of network effect will work. Finally, cross the chasm.