卡債問題的研究-以系統動力學為研究工具

Abstract

鑑於從去年十一月起，台灣卡債問題逐漸浮上台面，乃至於對全國各發卡銀行的影響甚鉅，卡債的問題不僅會影響民眾的生活，也會導致銀行的呆帳上生造成虧損，但目前相關之學術論文多數卻仍以探討銀行如何增加其發卡量及行銷手法為主，極少數在討論解決卡債問題。本文嘗試以另一種角度切入，以系統動力學作為分析工具，針對金管會所提出的債務協商機制，試圖建立最常見的六種不同類型消費者模型，並個別建立該類型持卡人在加入協商機制前與加入協商機制後不同的模型，並進行連續六十期之電腦模擬，目的在檢測金管會當初設立債務協商機制的目的：「欲協助有還款能力及誠意之民眾」是否有效；根據系統動力學模型模擬結果顯示，發現金管會提出的債務協商機制對於有還款意願的民眾，只可以說廣義上為有效的，而並非完全有效。但對於無還款意願的持卡人，則不僅無效反而還可能成為該意願類型持卡人為躲避循環利息，最好的合法避風港。

According to the problem of the credit card debt shown in the society and it makes huge influence on many banks. But most of the credit card research papers are focus on how to raise the amount of credit card used, not on how to solve the problem of the credit card debt. This paper using system dynamics to develop six different models, trying to test if the debt negotiation mechanism is useful for the credit card debtor. After sixty times modeling, we find that the debt negotiation mechanism is mostly useful for credit card debtor. But for those who never want to pay, the debt negotiation mechanism is not only unuseful, but also can be a shelter of people who don’t want to pay money back and want to lower their rate.