标题: 模糊多目标双人零和赛局理论应用于无线网路市场分析
Analyzing the Wireless LAN Market: An Approach of Two-Person Zero-sum Game with Multiple Fuzzy Goals
作者: 廖抱元
pao-yuan,Liao
曾国雄
Gwo-Hshiung Tzeng
管理学院科技管理学程
关键字: 模糊;模糊目标;多目标决策;零和;非合作;赛局;竞局;报酬矩阵;无线区域网路;fuzzy;multiple objective decision making (MODM);fuzzy goal;zero-sum;non-cooperative;game;pay-off matrix;wireless LAN
公开日期: 2005
摘要: 本研究参考模糊单目标赛局理论之文献,据以构建模糊多目标双人零和赛局规划模式。传统双人零和赛局模式中,报酬矩阵中各元素皆为定值,且未考虑决策者之期望水准。论文中引进模糊多目标赛局理论于双人零和赛局模式,使模式能反映出决策者之期望水准与报酬矩阵中各元素的模糊性,使模式更符合现实且决策更富弹性,本研究并以模糊报酬值之赛局进行研究,以Sakawa所提出的模糊线性规划求得多目标的最佳化,其中并利用Ramik提出将模糊区间转换成数条明确限制式的想法,做为求解模糊线性规划的方法,由数学限制式的推导,配合数学线性规划软体求解,求出双人非合作赛局中,各玩家的最大期望报酬与混合策略机率值。
本论文并以无线区域网路市场竞争分析为例,由实际的市场资料,将国内外晶片商股价及出货量对晶片价格和性能做研究,晶片的性能以无线网路速度代表,以指数成长曲线表示技术的成长趋势,利用回归统计的方法得到晶片商股价对晶片价格/性能回归式的系数,表示调整晶片价格或提升晶片性能对股价之影响程度,针对其定价策略及产品研发策略进行模糊非合作双人赛局分析,求得提升股价及增加出货量为目标的最适解,以验证本研究之实用性。由计算结果,无论是Sakawa模糊赛局模式或是Ramik的模糊线性规划法,大部份的条件下,都是建议玩家(国内晶片供应商)采取提供产品性能的策略,目标的达成度较高。
This study is to construct a two-person fuzzy matrix game with multiple fuzzy goals and
able to perform fuzzy element values of pay-off matrix in a traditional two-person zero-sum
game model, so that the game model can reflect more facts and decision elasticity. According
to the fuzzy game model and fuzzy linear programming method proposed by Sakawa and
Ramik individually, the study is focused on two-person non-cooperative game, and combined
with mathematic programming software to solve the fuzzy linear problems, and get the
maxima expected pay-offs and mixed strategy ratios for each player.
Finally, the fuzzy game model is applied in a case study of domestic and foreign wireless
LAN market share analysis in Taiwan. The performance of the chip is represented by WLAN
throughput, and the technology growth tendency is expressed by the exponential curve.
Using the above two assumptions, the pay-off matrix parameters are obtained from the
regression calculation result, which is to decide the optimize solution for marketing strategy
to adjust the chip price or improve chip specs. According to the calculation results, using
both Sakawa’s fuzzy game model and Ramik’s fuzzy programming method, under most
circumstances, the conclusions are suggesting decision makers (IC vender) to adopt the
strategy of improving product’s performance to achieve company’s goals.
URI: http://140.113.39.130/cdrfb3/record/nctu/#GT009365511
http://hdl.handle.net/11536/80028
显示于类别:Thesis


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