台灣銀行業獲利關係研究

Abstract

在高成長的消金業務進入高原期後，誰能率先找出金融業下一個具高成長潛力的藍海，將是未來獲利能力脫穎而出的關鍵，無論金控公司或本國銀行、外商銀行，無不致力擬定經營策略，建構銀行顧客價值分析機制，力求取得金融決賽的入場券。 就國際潮流而言，提升手續費收入比重實為重要課題。雙卡風暴引發諸多道德風險及呆帳，近幾年銀行業者致力發展消金業務，也為許多銀行帶來可觀的獲利，我們回頭思考，究竟台灣銀行業的競爭程度如何？消金業務比重高的銀行是否獲利較高？哪些因素真正影響銀行獲利？ 本研究透過台灣金融業結構變化、銀行集中化程度、存款結構、基金業務量及消金業務比重等面向，在不考量人事、租金成本及經營者行銷活潑度的前提下，探討影響銀行獲利的因素。本研究參考銀行網站、蒐集行政院金融監督管理委員會編印之金融統計月報，及信託同業公會公佈之信託統計季報，將本國銀行及外商銀行之稅前盈餘、手續費收入、活期性存款、定期性存款、外匯存款、公庫存款、指定用途信託資金投資海外共同基金、消費者貸款、放款餘額等數據建檔，並計算各銀行消費者貸款佔放款業務比重，分析1999年至2005年（共7個年度），80個銀行，共計560個樣本，其反應變量(稅前盈餘)對分析性解釋變數之模式，並利用貝恩理論探討台灣銀行業集中化及競爭程度，輔以迴歸分析，找出影響銀行獲利的關鍵因素。 從銀行發展歷史可知，無論企業金融、信用卡、消費金融，任何一項業務都不可能長期獲利，財富管理業務亦是如此。大家爭相競逐財富管理市場時，主管機關應制定更嚴謹之金融機構退場機制，加強金融整併規範，解決台灣overbanking現象，提高銀行集中化程度，締造國際級銀行，並使整體金融制度更趨健全。倘能重視風險控管及顧客價值分析，做好市場區隔、顧客區隔，提供差異化服務，無論發展企業金融、消費金融或財富管理業務，都能不忘風險及過往之教訓，相信有智慧的銀行經營者一定能走出自己銀行的特色，獲得顧客信任，穩健發展，創造銀行、顧客、社會之三贏。

Finding out the next blue ocean of the financial industry is the key factor that makes a high profit in the future while the consumer financial business has reached the extreme limit.No matter financial holding companies or local banks and foreign banks, all banks are constructing the customer risk and value system, trying hard for ticket of obtaining the financial finals.In regard to the latest trend of the international top, it’s a really important topic to grow the fees proportion. Banks have developed the consumer financial business in the last few years. The card storm has caused moral risk and delinquent debts. The primary objective of this research was to find out the factors influencing the profitability of the banks. The changes of the Taiwanese financial industry structure, the concentration degree of banks, deposits structure, mutual funds, and the consumer financial business proportion were all discussed. The data gathered from the websites of banks, the finance statistics monthly bulletin, and the quarterly reports of trust business, etc. The theory of Bain’s was the foundation to test the degree of concentration. Those factors (consisting of earnings before tax, fees, saving deposits, time deposits, foreign exchange deposits, government deposits, mutual funds, consumer loans, total loans and so on) were also tested by using regression method. The data consisting of 560 samples of 80 banks from 1999 to 2005(total 7 years). We know that the corporate finance business, credit card business, or consumer finance business, any business all impossibly makes a profit over a long period of time. While all banks pursuing the wealth management market, the supervisor organization should draw up more seriously system about closing banks which are not good, strengthening the merger and acquisition laws, solving overbanking, raising the concentration degree of banks. If the banks put more attention on the risk controlling, the analyzing of customer value, a bank executive who has intelligence can certainly come out the special features of the bank, acquiring the customer trust, steady development, and winning the victory of bank, customer, and the society.