多元化水資源策略模擬與經濟財務分析

Abstract

環境生態保育意識的提昇，使得傳統上依賴單一大型水工結構物的開發，以解決區域水資源需求的做法，已愈來愈不可行。因此，因應水源需求量與質的提高，多元化水資源的開發已是未來的趨勢，惟此多元化水資源開發的規劃分析，牽涉到各種不同開發策略之各種組合分析，因此相較以往的水資源規劃問題，在工程效益或是經濟財務上的分析，其複雜度皆大為提高，因此需要一不同以往的分析方法與工具，以輔助進行各種開發方案的分析，建議出可行且較佳的做法。 本研究目的在以系統動力學為核心理論，建立整合性區域水資源分析平台，並以此分析平台配合水資源永續利用的觀點，以台中地區為研究區域，進行各種水資源改善策略之評估，包括各種策略對系統的動態影響及策略風險。研究中將以多種永續評估指標為評估標準，其中包含缺水指數，地面水利用強度以及民生需求量、農業需求量和工業需求量等三項需求面指標。在經濟財務量化分析方面，為降低整體模型的複雜性，本研究在水量調配動力模型的基礎上，透過動態連結函式庫 (Dynamic Link Library, DLL) 的方式嵌入經濟財務分析模組，以建置完整的分析模式。 模擬結果顯示，同時考量越域引水（含后里淨水場擴充）、農業用水短期移用、管線汰換及水價調整之組合型改善策略最能有效降低各永續評估指標超出標準之風險，且經濟淨效益亦是最高。上述成果亦證明，本研究所建立之整合性區域水資源分析平台，確實可以提供更完整而清晰之參考資訊，以作為決策參考。

Due to rising environmental and ecological concerns, water demand issues often cannot be resolved using large-scale structures. Diversified water resource development approaches involving various water resource measures are thus being considered in order to resolve quantity and quality problems in water resources. However, diversified water resource development involves analyzing various scenarios involving various combinations of potential measures. Water resource planning problems become increasingly complex factors when analyzing a project’s feasibility or financial benefit. This study proposes a policy assessment platform based on system dynamics (SD) for integrated system planning of water resources. The system is then applied to measure the performance of various policies on sustainable water resource management in the Taichung area in Taiwan. Several indices and their upper constraints are proposed for assessing quantitative policies for sustainable water resource management. These indices are shortage index, deplenishing ratio of river water and water demands for industry, agriculture and municipal. The policy assessment investigates the dynamic impact of policy on sustainable indices and the risk of exceeding the constraints for the policies. To reduce the complexity of model development, the financial analysis module is developed in C++, and linked into the system through a Dynamic Link Library (DLL). Cases studies indicate that constructing new water pipes for cross-basin water distribution, installing HOWLI water treatment plan installation, decreasing agricultural water demand, facilitating pipeline renewal and increasing water prices reduce the risk of exceeding the selected indices and have largest economic benefits. Results of this study further demonstrate that the proposed policy assessment platform can assess effectively the performance of various scenarios of policies combination under an integrated water resource management framework for supporting decision-making.